The penultimate Super Eight game of this year’s ICC World T20 will see India take on Sri Lanka at St Lucia in a bid to attain a back-door entry into the semi-final of the tournament.

Not only does India (17/20 at Blue Square to win the game) need to win the game against the Sri Lankans (11/10 at Totesport) but they have to ensure that their net run-rate goes above Sri Lanka’s. That will only happen if the victory margin is 21 runs or more or with 15 or more balls to spare.

The Indian batsmen will heave a sigh of relief on seeing the track at St. Lucia given that it is a far cry from the one at Barbados. There is hardly any bounce and that will allow the Indian top-order to plonk their feet forward and go after the bowling, in much like the same manner as they do in India. This will ensure that Murali Vijay (4/1 at Bet365) should continue opening the innings with Gautam Gambhir (7/2 at Blue Square, both to top-score for the side), and Suresh Raina (4/1 at Ladbrokes to be the best batsman) will look to making those big runs at the number three position.

India need to probably ensure that they get their batting order, and have MS Dhoni (7/1 at Boylesports) walk up to bat before Yuvraj Singh (7/1 at Stan James), so that he is able to guide the ship a tad better.

For the Sri Lankan side, their batting is a similar issue, or probably even worse. None of the batsmen barring Mahela Jayawardene (5/2 at Ladbrokes to top-score for Sri Lanka) have got close to getting the runs, and the scars from the shocking collapse against Australia in the previous game will still haunt them. Kumar Sangakkara (7/2 at Boylesports to be the best batsman) needs to ensure that the shoulders do not drop too quickly, but most importantly, he needs to pray and hope that at least one of Tillakaratne Dilshan (9/2 at Blue Square) or Sanath Jayasuriya (6/1 at Bet365 to be the best batsman) get back to their form.

My sense is that Sri Lanka should still go into the game as favourites, and if they bat first, should be able to win the game.

Tips:
Favourites: Sri Lanka (11/10 at Totesport)
Top Sri Lankan batsman: Kumar Sangakkara (7/2 at Boylesports)
Top Indian batsman: MS Dhoni (7/1 at Boylesports)