England v South Africa Fourth ODI trading tips

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LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 02: Dale Steyn of South Africa celebrates after taking the wicket of Alastair Cook of England during the 4th NatWest Series ODI match between England and South Africa at Lord's Cricket Ground on September 2, 2012 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

England have beaten South Africa twice already and against all odds they can do it again in the fourth ODI.

There used to be a TV programme called 'Tales of the Unexpected.' It was a series of plays that always had a twist in the tail, nothing was ever as it seemed. English cricket could easily have been the inspiration for the dramas, a suitable mantra for this England team is 'expect the unexpected.'

Andrew Strauss called it a day last week and as he hung up his cricket box and gave his final interview there was doom and gloom surrounding the English game. It's worthwhile pointing out at this juncture that Strauss's appointment was not met with universal approval and he has forced many to eat humble pie. That includes this column which referred to his appointment as being as exciting as when Michael Foot took over the Labour party. Those of us that were cynical about the Middlesex man owe him an apology, he has done a superb job.

He has silenced his critics with aplomb and although his decision to stand down has probably been timed to perfection it has still added to England's woes. They have lost their skipper, their number one Test ranking and Kevin Pietersen, arguably their best batsman, in the space of a couple of weeks. Unsurprisingly, not everyone is in mourning and our colonial cousins Down Under are very happy with the situation.

With depression and prozac the order of the day two ODIs had to be played in the space of three days against a team that had been thoroughly enjoying themselves this summer. Not many gave England much hope of bouncing back against the South Africans but if you'd followed the mantra and 'expected the unexpected' you would have enjoyed a very profitable weekend as England put the Proteas to the sword to take a 2-1 series lead with one to play.

It was quite a turnaround and evidence that South Africa are far more reliant on Jacques Kallis than England are on Kevin Pietersen. It makes for an intriguing finale to the series avoiding the dreaded dead rubber with everything still up for grabs. England are 2.0811/10 to win the game with the Proteas at 1.910/11. The concern for South Africa is that since the 150 scored by Hashim Amla during the second ODI none of their batsmen has made a half century.

That's one heck of a statistic, one that gets you reaching for the back button next to England.

A 3-1 series win will certainly endorse the 'expect the unexpected' mantra, at 1-0 down they looked set to be on the end of an embarrassing whitewash. It's great credit to the players that they are now in a winning position but they still have to see it through on Wednesday at Trent Bridge.

The one day series is followed by a three game T20 series against the tourists and then the T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka later in the month. Cricket's schedule is savage with a shark-like belief that it has to keep moving or it will die, consequently there's no time to lament over Andrew Strauss's retirement.

It will be a couple of months before Alastair Cook gets the chance to skipper the Test side when England face India in their first post-Strauss Test series which gets under way on 15 November. He could not have had a better introduction, the critics believe England have absolutely no chance in the sub-continent against the mighty Indians and many believe avoiding a whitewash will be about as good as it can get for Cook and his men. It's a freebie for the new skipper because the expectation bar couldn't be any lower.

Don't believe it, watch this space when the market forms and expect the unexpected from England, you might just make a killing!

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