Preview of the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, which starts tonight, and sides with a more solid India
Australia
Australia have won only one of their last six Test series, the failure to triumph in the Trans Tasman Trophy against New Zealand particularly distressing. They are rebuilding and it will take some time. Some of the bricks they have used have not proved strong enough for the job so they have had to be replaced.
Out have gone Phil Hughes, the awkward opener, and Usman Khawaja. In come Ed Cowan and the returning Shaun Marsh. There are also places for Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle, the redoubtable pace bowlers. Ricky Ponting, who is under pressure for his place after averaging 26 for 2011, less than Hughes and Khawaja, will bat at No 4.
India
The batting is as strong as ever for India. Virender Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir, Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Virat Kohli and VVS Laxman complete a fantasy top six. But the question with India is often about bowling prowess.
The loss of Praveen Kumar to injury is a blow while there are doubts over the fitness of Ishant Sharma. Fortunately Zaheer Khan is fit again after ankle surgery. In reserve we like the look of young pacer Umer Yadav. The spin threat looks healthy, too with Ravi Ashwin likely to cement his place in the side for years to come.
Pitch and conditions
Rain is forecast for day one but the weather is set fair for the rest of the Test. The draw price will inevitably dip if rain falls but it is a position to trade as each of the last 10 Tests have produced results. The MCG pitch should be lively early on - Australia were bowled out for 98 by England in the Boxing Day Test last year in similar overcast conditions. It was a muggy day also when England were shot out for 159 five years previously. The last five first match-innings scores read 98, 454, 394, 343 and 159.
Match odds
Australia are 2.16 with India 3.95 and the draw 3.50 at Betfair. It is understandable that Australia are favourites but we cannot countenance backing them.
They have two problems: their batting and their bowling. Apart from that they are fine. It is difficult to be convinced by a re-jigged front six, which also includes David Warner (a Twenty20 specialist no?) but lacks the balance that the absent Shane Watson brings.
As for the bowling, James Pattinson seems an admirable young tyro but where is the pace that has unhinged a stellar batting line-up in the past? Military medium Hilfenhaus and Siddle will hold no fears.
Australia could struggle to take 20 wickets in this series. Which is why the most exciting bet is the 3.35 that India take the spoils. They have fewer problems than the hosts so should be closer in the betting.
Granted, India have not won a Test series in Australia in nine attempts since their first visit in 1947-48 but this is their best chance.
Top Australia batsman
Marsh has a record that should be respected. He has a calm authority at the crease and his promotion to No 3 at the expense of Ponting shows how highly rated he is. In his first three Tests he impressed greatly and following an injury lay-off, he will be raring to go. He is 6.40 for honours. A lay of Ponting to score a 50 may also be wise at around 3.20.
Top India batsman
Tendulkar's wait for his hundredth hundred goes on. He top scored in the first innings the last time India were at the MCG. He is 5.30 for a repeat. Dravid, at 5.70, is forever better value.
Recommended bet
India to win series @ 3.35 @ Betfair
