The World Hurdle at Cheltenham revolves around one horse - Big Buck's - who is attempting to complete a hat-trick of wins in the race, but there could be a good ante-post play against the odds-on favourite...
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Make no mistake; Big Buck's is by far and away the most likely winner. He was sent off at 1.96 when landing his second World Hurdle for Paul Nicholls in March and will be an even shorter price this time around (currently 1.81), assuming everything also goes to plan in his next reported assignment, the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.
A dominant force in the staying hurdle division for the last couple of years, Big Buck's extended his winning sequence over hurdles to ten when easily landing the rearranged Long Walk at Newbury in December and has an excellent chance of emulating Inglis Drever, who was a three-time winner of the World Hurdle. Big Buck's has nearly a stone in hand of anything else in the division according to Timeform ratings, but would you want to back him at odds on with another two and a half months to go? I think not.
So where are the alternatives? Karabak ((22.0]) is an admirable sort who enhanced his reputation when taking the Relkeel at Cheltenham (Celestial Halo (22.0) and Zaynar (21.0) third and fourth respectively) in December, but he twice had to play second fiddle to Big Buck's last season and there's no reason to think he will get the better of him in March. So is it worth backing Karabak for a place instead? Probably not, as he's already shown how good he is and there are others who look to have greater potential.
Celestial Halo made a sound return to hurdling in the Relkeel, after an aborted chasing campaign, but he wouldn't be sure to stay the trip and would likely take part only if the same owners' Big Buck's were to miss the race for some reason. Zaynar is another about whom there are doubts. Third in last season's Champion Hurdle, Zaynar hasn't really gone on this term and is yet to try the three-mile trip, and the fact that he pulled too hard given an outing in blinkers in the Relkeel last time suggests stepping up wouldn't necessarily be in his favour.
Willie Mullins' Mourad (18.0) was impressive when landing a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over the Festive period and is still relatively unexposed as a stayer, but he too has his limits, and arguably the biggest threat to Big Buck's is David Pipe's Grands Crus.
Grands Grus has had only five runs over hurdles so far, but he's shown high-class form in winning both his starts this season, at Cheltenham and Haydock. Grands Crus was much improved when stepping up to three miles for the first time at Haydock and was most impressive in cantering ten lengths clear of a subsequent winner. There was an even bigger distance back to the third that day, himself a useful sort, and, if anything, Grands Crus was value for much more than the actual margin of victory, having the race in the bag some way out and coasting late on.
Obviously, the World Hurdle is a big step up from handicaps, but Grands Crus will hopefully get the chance to test the water in graded company before Cheltenham, and the 19.0 currently on offer won't be around for long after that.
So, for those looking to have an ante-post stake in the World Hurdle, the recommendation is to back Grands Crus to win. Big Buck's may well start even shorter than 1.81 on the day, but if we are right about Grands Crus then he too will be shorter than his current odds, and if there is a horse in the field with the potential to make a race of it with Big Buck's then it is David Pipe's grey.
Recommendation
Back Grands Crus to win @ 19.0 in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham