2007 Winner: Joes Edge; Trainer: Ferdy Murphy; Age: 10; Weight: 10st 6lb; SP: 50/1

Key trends:
As I've suggested elsewhere on this website, horses carrying more 11st or more in festival handicaps should be avoided like the plague and this race is no exception. In fact, seven of the last eight winners carried 10st 9lb or less, including last year’s shock winner Joes Edge. On that basis, Miko De Beauchene would be up against it off 11st 8lb should he run here instead of the Pertemps Hurdle. Age is also a significant barrier to success as not one singe horse aged 11 or older has made the frame in the last nine renewals (26 contenders).

The Irish rarely send one over for this due to it’s proximity to the Irish National meeting but, when they do, they invariably run well - Dun Doire (10st 5lb) and Newbay Prop (10st 2lb) look their best hopes this year. No favourite has won in the past 10 renewals, although seven of those winners were priced at 10/1 or less, which gives punters plenty of hope.

The contenders (best current price):
David Pipe’s An Accordion (5/1 general) has an obvious chance after his narrow victory in the Skybet Chase last time out, but is up 11lb in the ratings. Miko De Beauchene (10/1 general) is the best horse in the race and has carried big weights to success before. Paul Nicholls’ Ofarel D’Airy (12/1 William Hill) has a good record on this track over fences and looks fairly well-handicapped now. The Irish pair, Dun Doire (8lb higher than when beating Juveigneur here two years ago) and Newbay Prop (16/1 Skybet), would enter calculations if the heavens open. King Harald (16/1 bet365) and Abragante (16/1 VCbet) are previous course winners lurking down the bottom of the weights. French raider L’ami (14/1 Ladbrokes), trained by Francois Doumen, who has done well with his Cheltenham runners, has been well-supported in recent days.

The verdict:
I’m keen to take on the Pipe jolly on account of his jumping, which has been less than fluent in the past. I know he jumped around Doncaster okay last time, but the fences there are the easiest in the country to negotiate. His stablemate Abragante could run well after a break, but I prefer the chances of Ofarel D’Airy. Paul Nichols’ six-year-old looks well-handicapped again after a couple of disappointing efforts in chases and ran second over hurdles last time, where he looked transformed in first time blinkers. That will have sharpened him up for this and the likely good to soft ground will be perfect.

Betting advice:

BACK - Ofarel D’Airy 1pt each way @ 12/1 William Hill
LAY - An Accordion - jumping is a major cause for concern (Betfair)