How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Triumph Hurdle trends?

1. Last ran between 19 and 48 days ago - 10 winners in the last 10 runnings
That's a stat that Zaynar (55 days), Starluck (76 days) and Lethal Weapon (77 days) will have to overcome.

2. 'First past the post' last time out - 9/10
Leading Irish hope Ebadiyan was runner-up last time out.

3. Won at least half of hurdle races - 9/10 (only one was undefeated, though)
None of the leading contenders fall down on this count.

4. Ran between three and five times over hurdles - 9/10
That's a serious obstacle for Master Of Arts (one run, one win).

5. By a Group 1-winning sire - 8/10
Zaynar is by multiple Group 1 winner Daylami. However, Walkon is by miler Take Risks, who did not win at Group 1 level.

6. Pre-race RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 123 - 8/10
Clearly, this is not a race to back a 'dark' horse.

Conclusion:
The race has undergone a change in recent years since the introduction of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, which now attracts many of the outsiders / handicappers which would have taken part in the Triumph. The resultant smaller fields have allowed the cream to rise to the top and the last four winners have all started at single-figure prices and came from the top four in the betting.

Therefore, it might pay to stick to the current front four - Zaynar (9/2 Sportingbet), Walkon (5/1 William Hill), Master Of Arts (6/1 bet365) and Starluck (7/1 Victor Chandler). Of these, Zaynar has plenty going for him, but needs to buck a couple of trends: he's unbeaten (one such winner in the past decade, although having an unbeaten record after two starts can hardly be considered a negative); and has been off the track since mid-January (all recent winners had more recent runs).

Walkon was soundly beaten by Zaynar at Newbury (though a defeat is no bad thing according to the trends) and his flat breeding is atypical of recent winners. The main worry with him, though, is that all his form is on very soft ground which might not be the case on the final day of the festival.

Starluck is another unbeaten contender who has been off for some time, while impressive Doncaster winner Master Of Arts lacks experience - there has been no once-raced winner in the past 25 years. That said, the last time the Pipe's ran one with so little experience in a Grade 1 novice at the festival was Well Chief, and he trotted up in the Arkle.