What are the current best-value bets - and worst - for this year's Triumph Hurdle?
Best Value:
Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, which attracts the outsiders that would have run in the Triumph, this race has become a happy hunting ground for punters with the last four winners going off at single-figure prices. Therefore, I'm not not looking beyond the current first four in the betting - but which one?
The four in question are Zaynar, Walkon, Master Of Arts and Starluck and, with bookmakers going 9/2 'the field', all are backable prices. However, the one I'm drawn to is MASTER OF ARTS, a current 6/1 shot with bet365 and likely to be a bit shorter on the day. The stats boys will say he can't win as he's a once-raced hurdler and no such horse has won the race in the past 25 years. However, when it comes to betting it sometimes pays to forget the 'rules' and go on instinct instead and this one is worth backing on potential alone.
A massive improver on the flat for Sir Mark Prescott (unbeaten in six 2008 handicaps, rising from a mark of 58 to 104), he couldn't have been more impressive on his debut at Doncaster when hammering the highly-regarded Copper Bleu, albeit getting 17lb from the runner-up. The most striking thing about that performance, though, was his jumping, while his stamina over 2m, which some may question, never looked an issue.
His trainer David Pipe is not one to trumpet his horses but he's made no secret of the fact that he thinks this one could be very good indeed and I wouldn't be surprised to see him contesting next year's Champion Hurdle. In which case, we'll all be looking back thinking that 6/1 was a gift for the Triumph.
Worst Value:
Of the front four, the one I fancy least is Starluck and I reckon he'll be a drifter on the day. His trainer Alan Fleming, who has made a good impression this season, reports him to be "going well at home", but his form is on flat tracks and decent ground and it's anyone's guess whether he'll handle cut in the ground and the undulations of Cheltenham, or whether he's up to beating class hurdlers Zaynar and Master Of Arts for that matter. He looks place lay material.
Zaynar owes his position as market leader to his demolition of Walkon at Newbury, but he's not certain to confirm that form and he didn't look a natural over hurdles on his second start at Ascot. That said, he has a similar profile to Katarino who won this race for Nicky Henderson in 1999. He was the first horse off the bridle that day but kept finding more up the hill to win impressively, and few will finish as powerfully as Zaynar. I can see him being much bigger odds in-running, so why back him now at around 4/1?
