Nicky Henderson is triple-handed in his bid to win the Triumph Hurdle (1.30) for the sixth time and for the third time in a row.

2010 Result: Soldatino, trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Barry Geraghty, 6/1 SP.

Key Trends:
Sent off the 6/1 third-favourite, Soldatino ensured that all six winners since the introduction of the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle were from the top four in the market, suggesting the days of upsets are long gone.

With the non-championship standard horse now taking the handicap option, class comes to the fore. Just one of the last 13 winners was rated below 80 on the flat, while five of the past 10 winners had won a Graded hurdle. Sticking with the flat, it might be significant that the last 12 winners were all tested over at least 1m4f, which is a negative for Unaccompanied, who never tackled further than a mile.

Of the last 17 winners, all bar two had finished 'first past the post' last time out, although only two of the past 10 winners though had been undefeated over hurdles.

The best guide has been the Adonis Hurdle (won this season by Zarkander), with four winners doubling up since 1997, closely followed by the Triumph Hurdle Trial at the Open Meeting (in which Sam Winner beat Grandouet), which has provided three winners since 1998.

Henderson (Grandouet, A Media Luz, Molotof) is clearly the trainer to follow but Alan King has far from a shabby record with two wins, two seconds and a third in the last years. This year, he relies solely on Smad Place.

Major Players:
Many of the leading contenders have been beating each other but Grandouet (13/2 bet365) looks to have improved on his last two starts, winning at Ascot and Newbury. The big question is whether he can reproduce the form on an undulating surface and the doubters will point to his run here in November, when he was well-beaten by Sam Winner (6/1 general), himself defeated two starts later. With Ruby Walsh booked to ride Sam Winner, the other Nicholls runner Zarkander (7/1 Ladbrokes), the mount of Daryl Jacob, has the look of a second string but it would be dangerous to rule him out on that score alone as he was a stylish winner of the Adonis.

The Irish have not won the race since Scolardy in 2002 but look to have excellent claims with the filly Unaccompanied (7/1 Coral), who is 2-2 over hurdles, including the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out. Soft ground is a requisite, though, according to connections. On such a surface, Smad Place (9/1 Boylesports) would take some getting past as he's proved on two of his three starts this season (finished third in the other one).

The Henderson perceived second string A Media Luz (12/1 Coral) dotted up on her last start at Huntingdon (blowing her handicap mark for the Fred Winter in the process!) and only has four-and-a-half lengths to find with his stablemate Grandouet on their running at Newbury in December. She was good enough to run in the French Oaks last summer and, being a filly, will be in receipt of 7lb (as will Unaccompanied).

Lively Outsiders:
Third Intention (12/1 Ladbrokes) won nicely on his debut at Newbury in December but was far too keen on his next couple of starts, failing to get home in the mud at Haydock last time. He would appreciate a faster surface. The well-touted Brampour looks the Paul Nicholls third-string on jockey bookings, while Molotof gives Nicky Henderson a third-string to his bow. David Pipe runs the ex-French Trop Fort (33/1 Stan James), who was in the process of running well when falling at the last in the race won by Brampour.

Betting Advice:
There's plenty of collateral form to go on here but it's far from conclusive and none of the market leaders are entirely convincing. A lot will depend on the ground and if the forecast rain materialises and turns the going genuinely 'good to soft', I will want to be on Smad Place at 9/1. However, on a point of value alone, it could be worth taking a chance on TROP FORT, who was a smart horse in France, where he won two bumpers. According to his trainer, you would never know he had fallen last time, so well has he been schooling, and they must think an awful lot of him to pitch him here on what is only his second start over hurdles. At 33/1 with Stan James, who are offering four places (don't accept anything less), he makes considerable each-way appeal.