What are the current best-value bets - and worst - for this year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle?
Best Value:
The mere thought of the cheer that will ring out as the tapes go up for this race sends a tingle down my spine, but the prospect of trying to find the winner at this stage is quite scary.
I've got a healthy respect for the David Pipe-trained Torpichen, who impressed me when winning on his debut at Ludlow - a race won by some classy sorts in the past, including Punjabi two years ago - and again when scoring easily at Sandown next time, the form of which was given a major boost when the runner-up, Trenchant, won a Grade 2 novices' hurdle next time out. The fact that he's a four-year-old doesn't worry me as David's father Martin won this race with a juvenile, Hors La Loi III, in 1999, and this one might be as good.
However, at the time of writing, he's still in two other races at the festival (Ballymore Properties, Triumph), so he's one to back nearer the time, and the ante post value lies elsewhere - but where?
The Irish have a great record in this race (seven winners and six places from 68 runners in the last 10 runnings) and Willie Mullins looks to have the strongest hand by far: Cousin Vinny, Hurricane Fly, Mikhael D'Harguenet and KEMPES all have sound claims. Of that quartet, only Kempes can be considered a definite runner at this stage, and he looks to have slipped under the bookmaker's radar at 25/1 (Sportingbet).
On the bare form of his two soft-ground wins, he has to improve a fair bit to win the Supreme, but no-one can doubt his potential and his flat form suggests that he's going to be miles better on faster ground, which he'd hopefully get at Cheltenham.
It wasn't so long ago when the shortest-priced Irish runner in this race was often beaten by a compatriot, and Mullins has won this race twice with long-priced winners - Tourist Attraction at 25/1 in 1996 and 40/1 Ebaziyan two years ago.
Click here to back Kempes
Worst Value:
For obvious reasons, neither of the two market leaders Cousin Vinny (could run in the 2m5f race) or Hurricane Fly (injury doubt) can be recommended at this stage.
Torpichen aside, the British challenge is headed by Nicky Henderson's Ainama, who remains as short as 8/1 despite being beaten at Kempton last weekend. He looks more of an Aintree horse to me.
Even worse value, though, is Red Moloney, who is flying high in the betting at around 12/1 after three good-ground wins at Musselburgh, the form of which amount to next to nothing. He's more hype than substance in my opinion and won't be carrying any of my money. If he makes it to the festival, he could be a single-figure price at which point he becomes place lay material.
