The Supreme Novices' Hurdle over 2m1f (Tuesday 15th, 1.30pm) is effectively the novices' equivalent of the Champion Hurdle and is always run at a furious pace, while the roar that goes up as the tape rises is deafening.
2010 Result: Menorah, trained by Philip Hobbs and ridden by Richard Johnson, 12/1 SP.
Key Stats:
This has not been a good race for favourite backers in recent years. The last winning favourite was Brave Inca (7/2) in 2004, although he was the third market leader to oblige in a row. Going further back over the last 30 Festivals, of the 11 favourites to go off at 9/4 or less, eight were turned over. That has to be a worry for potential backers of this year's red-hot favourite Cue Card, who is also bidding to become the first horse to complete the Champion Bumper-Supreme double since Montelado in 1993.
This is traditionally a strong race for the Irish and, indeed, they've racked up seven wins since 2000, which is even more impressive when you consider they've been responsible for only 32 per cent of the runners in this period. Their challenge this year wouldn't be the strongest on paper, though, and their main hopes may lie with Zaidpour, who has twice been beaten at short odds since winning impressively at Leopardstown in December, and the Dermot Weld trained pair of Hidden Universe and Unaccompanied.
Another key stat to emerge is the record of last-time-out winners with 12 of the last 14 runners having won their previous race, while nine of the last 10 winners had ran in the last 45 days. Again, Cue Card falls down on both counts as he was beaten on his last start in the International Hurdle back in December.
Major Players:
Cue Card is many people's idea of a 'Festival Banker' (no such thing, I know). He absolutely destroyed the opposition in last year's Champion Bumper and has taken well to hurdles this season with impressive wins at Aintree and Cheltenham, while he was far from disgraced when finishing runner-up to Menorah last time. That level of form is good enough to win an average renewal of this race and he's a worthy favourite for sure, although the general 9/4 on offer hardly screams value.
Spirit Son (13/2 Sportingbet) is next in the betting and has looked a high class prospect in winning his two British hurdle starts since coming over from France with a big reputation. The ground was very soft on both occasions but he has the raw speed to be just as effective on good ground. His trainer Nicky Henderson, last successful in this race 19 years ago, is also likely to saddle Sprinter Sacre (8/1 Blue Square) and Gibb River (20/1 Stan James), but you get the impression Spirit Son is the better fancied of the trio.
Recession Proof (10/1 Ladbrokes) was a game winner of the ultra competitive Totesport Trophy and that race has proved a good trial for Cheltenham in the past, with last year's winner Get Me Out Of Here going on to finish a close runner-up to Menorah. The ground was soft at Newbury but he's also won on good ground over hurdles and on the flat.
Lively Outsiders:
Zaidpour was amongst the market leaders back in December but has drifted out to 12/1 (Ladbrokes) on the back of two defeats. He's got something to prove now. Hidden Universe (20/1 Paddy Power) hated the ground in the Deloitte Hurdle last time and we will see a different horse on a sound surface, while the opposite is true of his stablemate Unaccompanied (16/1 bet365), who must have some cut to operate at her best. An impressive winner at Leopardstown last time, after which she was cut for the Triumph, there is a strong possibility she could be switched to the Supreme, where she will encounter good no faster than 'good to soft' and be able to take advantage of her age and sex allowances.
Betting Sweeteners:
Ladbrokes and bet365 are going 'non-runner, no bet', meaning you will get your money back if you back a non-runner, and Boylesports will refund all win single bets and the win part of each-way bets should your selection finish second. bet365 are also going Best Odds Guaranteed. However, Paddy Power have trumped them all by offering to refund all losing win single and the win part of each-way bets should Cue Card oblige, which is an incredible offer when you consider his short price.
Betting Advice:
It's time to get off the fence and while I have the utmost respect for Cue Card, many a 'good thing' has been turned over in this race and the call is to oppose him at an incredibly skinny 9/4. Spirit Son looks a solid alternative and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 11/2 with Paddy Power, given their concession, but I can't resist having a few quid on UNACCOMPANIED at 16/1 with bet365, who will refund my stake if she's re-routed to the Triumph. If she does go down the Supreme route, she'll be a lot shorter than 16/1, so it's a gamble worth taking.
