How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Ryanair Chase trends?
1. Achieved an RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 158 - four winners in four runnings
Clearly, the race tends to go to an established chaser.
2. Top three finish last time out - 4/4
Both Our Vic (pulled up) and Imperial Commander (sixth) were disappointing last time, albeit when their stables were out of form.
3. Course Winner - 4/4
The first four in the betting have all won at Prestbury Park.
4. Won or placed in either the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cup - 4/4
Imperial Commander was an impressive winner of the Paddy Power back in November.
5. From the first three in the market - 4/4
6. No more than three runs since October - 4/4
Schindlers Hunt has had five runs so far this season.
7. At least 11 runs over fences - 3/4
Imperial Commander, with just five chase runs, would be the most inexperienced winner in the race's short history.
Conclusion:
The race has only been run four times but it's already throwing up some solid trends, with the most notable feature about all the winners being that they were proven over course and distance (2m5f). The winners had also attained a pre-race RPR of 158, so there's no point in looking for a 'dark' horse. In fact, all the winners started 9/2 or shorter and were from the first three in the betting, making this a very good race for punters to get stuck into.
Lets start with the ante post favourite Voy Por Ustedes (7/4 Blue Square) who has run some of his best races at the track (won an Arkle and a Champion Chase) and is officially the top rated horse in the race by some way. He has plenty going for him, despite the fact that he's yet to win over this trip around Prestbury Park, and would probably be running in the Champion Chase again if Master Minded wasn't around. That said, he's won over 2m4f and 2m51/2f at Ascot last time, so this trip of 2m5f should be perfect. He's not one to oppose lightly.
The current second favourite Tidal Bay (13/2 Sportingbet) is in a race against time to be fit after cutting himself at Cheltenham last time. Besides, he has been a bit disappointing this season and it's hard to see him troubling a peak-form Vor Por Ustedes.
Last year's winner Our Vic is the general 8/1 third favourite in most lists, but he has to bounce back from a poor showing in the King George, when admittedly his stable were out of form. That's not impossible, but he's an 11-year-old now and this year's renewal looks more competitive.
Which leaves Imperial Commander (10/1 Paddy Power), who would be third favourite if you take Tidal Bay out of the race. Like Our Vic, he was disappointing in the King George. However, his stable were under a cloud at the time and he is best judged on his impressive win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November when beating the very smart Barbers Shop. What he lacks in experience, he makes up for in raw talent and, if the stable's horses are back to their best, he will take some stopping.
