The Ryanair Chase over 2m5f (Thursday 17th, 2.40) replaced the old 'Cathcart' when the Festival moved to four days in 2005 and despite its infancy some some trends have emerged.
2010 Result: Albertas Run, trained by Jonjo O'Neill and ridden by AP McCoy, 14/1 SP.
Key Trends:
Even last year's 'shock' winner Albertas Run had previously won at Cheltenham, in common with the other five winners. Five of the six had either won or been placed in the Paddy Power or Vote AP Gold Cups, won by Little Josh and Poquelin (for the second year running) respectively. Of the fancied horses, both Kalahari King and J’y Vole fall down on this stat, although it's worth remembering that the former ran a cracker when beaten a short-head in the Arkle two years ago.
Away from Cheltenham, the best guide has been the King George, which has provided the last three winners. The only qualifier this year is Albertas Run, who was pulled up at Kempton on ground that was softer than ideal. The Peterborough Chase, on the other hand, has been a bad guide with all six winners turned over here, which is a black mark against Tartak.
Admittedly, there is a small sample to go on, but this Grade 1 does look like being one of the more punter-friendly races at the Festival, with five easy-to-spot winners going off no bigger than 6/1.
Major Players:
Last year's runner-up Poquelin (11/4 bet365) has been kept fresh for this after winning here in December and, having won that race off a mark of 163, 12lb higher than the previous year, it's safe to say he's a better horse this season. Indeed, the Paul Nicholls-trained chaser can boast form figures of 121251 when racing over 2mf-2m5f here and with the good ground in his favour, he's a worthy favourite.
The ground has also come right for Kalahari King (5/1 Coral), who caught the eye when running into fourth behind Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase after being badly hampered. He's trying this trip for the first time but 2m looks the minimum for him these days and there is every chance he will improve for it. His Festival form figures stand at an impressive 423, which includes a close second in the 2009 Arkle and a third in last year's Champion Chase.
Last year's winner Albertas Run (7/1 Stan James) has been running poorly this season but a a revival cannot be ruled out given he likes good ground, while connections of the third home, J’y Vole (9/1 Coral), will be hoping for better luck in running. Willie Mullins' mare has been below par on her last two runs but the return to a more galloping track and better ground should suit.
Lively Outsiders:
Tartak (25/1 Boylesports) has been in the form of his life this season, winning the rescheduled Peterborough at Newbury and followed that up with his first Cheltenham win in January. The rain-softened ground would have contributed to his defeat in the Betfair Chase on his next start. Gauvain (12/1 general) proved his stamina for this trip when finishing runner-up in that Ascot race but still has plenty to find on form. Dual Festival winner Voy Por Ustedes (16/1 Sportingbet) is back from injury and bidding to stave off retirement.
Betting Advice:
The ante post market for this race has been dominated by Poquelin and anyone who got on at 5/1 back in January should pat themselves on the back. He looks to have everything in his favour and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him now, although he's hardly value at 11/4. Instead, I'm going to have a little each-way on TARTAK at what looks a big price at 25/1 with Boylesports. Granted, Peterborough Chase winners have a poor record - Huntingdon and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese, which might explain that - but that course win in January proved he can handle the undulations. Furthermore, his trainer Tom George has his horses in cracking form after a quiet spell in February.
