The clash between the Nicky Henderson-trained pair Long Run and Punchestowns in the RSA Chase (2.40) promises to be one of the highlights of the meeting.
The Favourite
The pair have flip-flopped in the market recently after Punchestowns was found to be lame (sound now) and Long Run, so impressive in two his British starts, is now almost certain to be sent off as favourite, with 2/1 the best on offer with Coral. This exciting French recruit gained plenty of admirers, me included, when winning the Feltham over 3m at Kempton's Christmas meeting and again at Warwick on his next start, where he showed plenty of speed over a sharp 2m to win going away by 12 lengths. If in the same sort of form, he's going to be tough to beat providing he jumps well, which is the worry. He was very low over some of his fences at Kempton and took a while to warm to his task at Warwick, and the fact his jockey Sam Waley-Cohen, while a top amateur, lacks experience against the best, will have his backers scurrying behind the sofa as he approaches the downhill fences.
The Dangers
His stablemate Punchestowns (3/1 Betfred) of course as he would be favourite but for that injury scare. He was by far the best hurdler in the field - second to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle - and hasn't done much wrong in two chase starts, winning as he liked on his debut at Newbury and then surviving an early mistake when scoring at Sandown in February. He won't get away with a similar error - which came at one of Sandown's downhill fences - at Cheltenham, but he's undoubtedly a high class horse.
For many punters, this is a two-horse race, but they would be foolish to discount Diamond Harry (6/1 general), the next best of these over hurdles and two from two over fences, and last year's Albert Bartlett winner Weapon's Amnesty (8/1 Paddy Power), although both have had their own jumping issues.
The third Henderson runner Burton Port (14/1 Betfred) wasn't nearly as good as some of these over hurdles but he promises to be a better chaser and gained his fourth win in four starts when beating the useful yardstick Knockara Beau at Ascot last time. Citizen Vic (12/1 bet365) is an interesting runner as his trainer Willie Mullins has a good record in the race - provided last year's winner Cooldine, who won the same race as Citizen Vic, the Dr PJ Moriarty, prior to winning at Cheltenham.
Longshot
If Knockara Beau (20/1 Sportingbet) can jump better than he did at Ascot last time, he has a shout and the switch to racing left-handed should help in that respect. Prior to that, he'd chased home Weird Al at Wetherby and that horse was amongst the market leaders for this race before suffering a leg injury.
Verdict
I'm a huge fan of Long Run but I can't possibly back him at 2/1. He could make mincemeat of these but his jumping, after just two British starts, might need some more fine-tuning. His stablemate Punchestowns would have been the selection but for his recent setback which, although minor, has to be regarded as impinging on his chances. For me, it's not a race to get heavily involved in - the spectacle will provide enough of a buzz - although I still harbour strong hopes for my ante post pick WEAPON'S AMNESTY. He has to improve on what he's shown so far over fences but I think he's been crying out for 3m on good ground, which he should get here. At 8/1 with Paddy Power, he's still a very backable price.