The RSA Chase (Wednesday 16th, 2.40) is the staying championship for novice chasers and with stamina at a premium, many a class horse has capitulated here.
2010 Result: Weapon's Amnesty, trained by Charles Byrnes and ridden by Davy Russell, 10/1 SP
Key Trends:
The current favourite Time For Rupert is many people's idea of a banker bet but they might want to think again as he has to bust several key trends. Firstly, he has a long break to overcome. The last 10 winners had last run between 24 and 53 days ago and Paul Webber's novice has been absent for 95 days, having missed his intended warm-up in the Argento Chase due to a small problem. Secondly, he's short of match practice - the last 10 winners had run at least three times over fences. Thirdly, he's bidding to become the first winner in 20 years to have spent more than one season over hurdles.
Of course, he may have the necessary class to overcome this and he does tick several boxes: he's the right age at seven (8 winners in 10 years); he finished first or second last time out (10/10); and never ran on the flat (10/10).
Interestingly, four winners in the last 10 years had previously ran at the Festival and all four had shown excellent form - one won the Albert Bartlett, one was second and one was seventh in the Champion Bumper and one finished second in the Neptune. That will encourage backers of Time For Rupert, who finished runner-up in last season's World Hurdle to Big Buck's.
Major Players:
Time For Rupert, obviously, and it's worth pointing out that he hasn't touched a twig in winning both his chase starts here, the latest over this distance. That makes him a worthy favourite, although whether he should be 9/4 for what is a physically demanding race is another matter altogether. And it's not like there is a shortage of credible challengers with Jessies Dream (9/1 Stan James), a Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown in December, and the Paul Nicholls-trained Aiteen Thirtythree (9/1 Coral) set to take him on. The latter failed to live up to expectations over hurdles, but was always going to be a better chaser and simply oozed class when winning at Newbury last time. Like the favourite, though, he's only had two runs over fences.
Lively Outsiders:
Outside the front three in the betting, there are currently nine horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 and all can be given a chance of sorts. Wymott (10/1 general) was a smart hurdler and is shaping up to be even better over fences, looking most impressive on his last start at Bangor. His best form is with plenty of cut, though. Wayward Prince (12/1 Coral), the winner of all three of his chase starts, and Reynoldstown winner Master Of The Hall (16/1 general) boost the home team challenge.
Victories for Cooldine and Weapon's Amnesty, mean the Irish raiders are bidding for a hat-trick and, in addition to Jessies Dream, they field a couple of strong candidates in Mikhael D'Haguenet (12/1 general), a brilliant novice hurdler in 2008-09 when his six wins included the Neptune here, and Bostons Angel (16/1 bet365), who looked an out-and-out stayer when landing the Dr PJ Moriarty last time. Both would be suited by plenty of cut.
Betting Sweeteners:
Sportingbet will refund your bet (up to £25) if your horse falls, unseats rider or is brought down, which is a useful concession to have on your side in a race of this nature - applies to all 27 races at the Festival.
Betting Advice:
On the trends alone, Time For Rupert is crying out to be taken on and his unappealing odds are a further reason to hunt out some value. I fancied Jessies Dream strongly for this at one stage but he was turned over at odds-on last time and, although he might have won had Timmy Murphy not tried to be clever, his jumping was far from spot on. He's still a relatively short price at 9/1 compared to some of his rivals with similar form credentials. WAYWARD PRINCE lacks the star quality of the favourite but has done nothing wrong over fences (3-3) and this gritty performer won't be found wanting in this stamina test. I fancy he can make the frame at least and therefore rates a solid each-way at 12/1 (BOG) with Coral.