The Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2m (Wednesday 16th, 3.20) is the speed championship for chasers and is the feature race on day two of the Festival.
2010 Result: Big Zeb, trained by Colm A Murphy and ridden by B J Geraghty, SP 10/1.
Key Trends:
The best place to start when looking for the winner is previous Festival form as 19 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed at previous Festivals. Indeed, seven of the last 10 winners had previously won a race at the Festival.
Another strong guide has been the Tingle Creek Chase, which this season was run at Cheltenham in December and was won by Master Minded by eight lengths (Somersby third) - eight of the last winners of the Champion Chase had contested that race, finishing 31U21214. Backers of Sizing Europe will be encouraged by the record of Arkle Trophy winners - the last 12 to run here the following season have all been placed at worst, while two placed horses since 1986 have won.
Age has been a factor too with just one winner aged nine or older since 1997, which would count against the defending champ Big Zeb and Captain Cee Bee, both 10-year-olds. It might also pay not to look beyond the obvious, given that 10 of the last 12 winners were sent off at no bigger than 5/1. All of the last 10 winners had won over at least 2m11/2f, so stamina is important in what is nearly always a fastly-run contest.
Major Players:
Last year's impressive winner Big Zeb (3/1 William Hill) looked as good as ever when winning his first two starts this term and there were excuses for defeat by Golden Silver on his prep run at Punchestown - slow pace, hit the front too soon and ground softer than ideal. Certainly, his jumping problems appear to be a thing of the past and the strong pace and better ground will be in his favour. That said, 10-year-old Grade 1 chase winners are rare and only the brilliant Moscow Flyer has succeeded as a senior in this race in the last decade.
Master Minded (10/3 Stan James), having finished fourth last year when bidding to become only the second three-time winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase, is back for another go and is seemingly in better shape after a wind operation. Three wins from three starts this season are evidence of that, although a short head defeat of Somersby last time at Ascot suggests that the eight-year-old isn't as good as he was (he's now 10lb lower than his highest ever chase rating).
Somersby (8/1 Paddy Power) is at his best in a fast-run race and he has that precious Festival form in the bag, having finished third in the 2009 Supreme Novices' and runner-up in last season's Arkle. It wouldn't be a massive surprise to see him reverse Ascot form with Master Minded, although he would have preferred more cut in the ground. The latter's stablemate Woolcombe Folly took his record to 4-5 over fences when winning a handicap win here in December (fast time) and, although he missed his prep race after a bad scope, we may not have seen the best of him yet.
The Irish have had a terrific run of late, winning half of the last eight runnings, and they have a strong back-up squad to Big Zeb in the shape of Arkle Trophy winner Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee (winner of the 2008 Supreme Novices' but not so good over fences) and Golden Silver, who has been first or second in 11 of his last 12 starts - the exception came in last season's Champion Chase.
Lively Outsiders:
Newmill (16/1) sprang a shock in 2006 but this has not been a good race for outsiders and the only one you can make a case for is French Opera (20/1 bet365). Nicky Henderson's chaser took really well to Cheltenham last season, winning two handicap chases around this trip and nearly defied top weight in the Grand Annual. Last time out, he won an admittedly weak Game Spirit Chase at Newbury and could run into a place on his favourite track.
Betting Sweeteners:
Bookmakers are out to get your money at Cheltenham and there will be all sorts of offers to entice you on the day of the race. So, make sure you shop around!
Betting Advice:
Last year's winner Big Zeb is probably the one to beat but I just can't back him at a skinny-looking 3/1. Instead, I'm going to take a chance on SIZING EUROPE coming back to his best. He's had a less-than-ideal preparation, having been tried over 3m earlier this season, but the record of Arkle winners is compelling and that wasn't the first time he's looked good at Cheltenham - also won the Greatwood and looked like winning the Champion Hurdle before going wrong. With the drying ground in his favour, he makes considerable each-way appeal at 9/1 with Coral.
