2007 Winner: Butler's Cabin; Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill; Age: 7; Weight: 12st 0lb; SP: 33/1

Key trends:
Butlers’ Cabin was Jonjo O’Neil’s fourth winner in the last six runnings so, on that record alone, his Nor’Nor’East commands maximum respect. However, he falls down on the fact that he didn’t finish in the first two last time out (came 3rd), like four of the six winners since the race conditions were altered to attract classier horses in 2002. 

For many punters, this is one race that they will choose to sit out, and it’s no wonder with winning SP’s of 40/1, 33/1, 33/1 and 25/1 in recent years. So, if you’re brave enough to risk a punt, it could pay to back a couple of bigger-priced horses rather than steam in on the favourite. But do put a line through anything aged six or under - which would include the likely favourite Ornais - as they are unlikely to possess the necessary stamina - 4m is a bloody long way!

The contenders (best current price):
Paul Nicholls has re-routed Ornais (4/1 bet365) to this race from the SunAlliance and this high-class staying novice has obvious claims, as does David Pipe’s Over The Creek (5/1 William Hill), who was third in the Welsh National before being outpaced when fourth behind top novices over a too sharp 3m at Ascot last time. Beantown (11/1 Skybet), who lost out by only a neck to Hot Weld in the 2006 renewal, is back for another crack. Back On Line (12/1 Paddy Power) and Old Benny (14/1 totesport) represent the in-form stables of Venetia Williams and Philip Hobbs respectively. Nor’Nor’East (20/1 general) is lightly raced for a ten year old and could be suited by this stamina test. In a wide open contest, it’s quite possible that I haven’t mentioned the winner.

The verdict:
Considering the record of market leaders, I’m going to give the front two in the betting a swerve and back two at double-figure odds. Old Benny is also in the Kim Muir, but I expect him to line up here as this is more his type of race. He’s a dour stayer who has been showing up well against top novices over 3m, while his jumping was sharpened up last time by the application of blinkers. I saw Back On Line win down my local track Uttoxeter last time out (third win from four starts this season). She ran her rivals ragged there and I'm convinced that she will find further improvement over this trip - she’s always found plenty towards the end of her races around 3m.

Betting advice:

BACK - Old Benny 1pt @ 14/1 totesport / Back On Line 1pt @ 12/1 Paddy Power
LAY (Betfair) - Ornais - 17 renewals have come and gone since the last successful six-year-old