The Irish usually hold a strong hand in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle (Wednesday 16th, 2.05) and that is certainly the case for the 2011 version.
2010 Result: Peddlers Cross, trained by Donald McCain and ridden by Jason Maguire, 7/1 SP
Key Stats:
Since the races inception in 1971, the Irish have won 15 renewals, including four of the last eight, with Willie Mullins responsible for the last two. This year, the Closutton maestro is represented by So Young, who has recently displaced the Jessica Harrington-trained Oscars Well as favourite.
Age has been an important factor in this race with only one horse, French Holly in 1998, striking a blow for horses aged seven or older since 1974. In fact, the last 10 winners were aged five or six, which is a big negative for the seven-year-old Aikman.
Winning form is essential with nine of the last 10 winners having won at least 50 per cent of their hurdle runs, while the same number of winners had finished first or second on all completed starts over hurdles. Six of the last 10 winners had won a Graded Hurdle, while two of the exceptions had been placed in one.
This has been a good race for punters down the years with horse in the first six in the betting providing all but two of the last 25 winners. Favourite backers have done less well recently, though, with just one winning jolly (Mikael D'Haguenet 2009) in the past nine years.
Major Players:
Willie Mullins looks to have unearthed another strong candidate in So Young (from 10 original entries), who has won both starts over hurdles by a combined total of 21 lengths. The actual form is easy to crab as he beat nothing of note on his debut at Leopardstown and only had five rivals last time out at Punchestown, but he's won in the style of top-class performer and recent money for him is significant as it's rarely off the mark with this stable - the current 4/1 with Victor Chandler is standout. He does fall down on one key stat, having never won a Graded hurdle, and his ability to act on good ground has to be taken on trust, although he did win bumpers in France on good to soft. Interestingly, he's by the same sire as Mikael D'Haguenet, who won this race as favourite two years ago.
A sound surface might also be a problem for Oscars Well (7/2 general) as he ran poorly in a bumper on good ground last season. Even so, he's been a revelation this season, completing a hat-trick in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices' Hurdle last time (heavy ground), and is clearly improving at a rate of knots. It's hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
Bobs Worth (6/1 Ladbrokes) is the shortest priced British runner and he's entitled to be near the front of the market on his two wins at Cheltenham and had Rock On Ruby (12/1 Coral) behind him on the second occasion. He's one of two entries for Nicky Henderson, who has yet to win this race (0-21), and has to be considered a stronger candidate than his stablemate Minella Class (14/1 Paddy Power), who blotted his copybook with an odds-on defeat last time out at Huntingdon.
Lively Outsiders:
Aikman (33/1 Boylesports) came out best at the weights when beating Minella Class but he was given a good ride that day and hadn't looked anything special before that. He falls down on several trends. Tornado Bob (16/1 Paddy Power), the winner of two of his four hurdle starts, looks to have better prospects, especially if, as his trainer Donald McCain has suggested, he improves for decent ground. Al Ferof (20/1 Betfred) seems more likely to run in the Supreme.
Betting Sweeteners:
The majority of bookmakers are now going 'non-runner, no bet' and some are even Best Odds Guaranteed, meaning you can take a price and get paid out at the SP if it's bigger. Shop around!
Betting Advice:
I get the strong impression that best horses are trained in Ireland and, of these, Oscars Well, is the clear form pick. However, the recent money for SO YOUNG is hard to ignore and he could well turn out to be something special. The value is drying up fast so best dash in for the 4/1 with Victor Chandler while it lasts. He could go off around the 3/1 mark once the Irish get stuck in on the day.
