Best Value Bets:
Denman's defeat has blown the Gold Cup wide-open and there are now some tasty each ways bets to had, with EXOTIC DANCER being the one I'm most drawn to at 9/1 at 888Sport (free £50 bet)
Granted, he has an awful record against the now obvious favourite Kauto Star, but he has looked better than ever this season and, in my mind, he had the measure of Neptune Collonges in the Lexus Chase last time before the grey came to grief. In which case, why is the Nicholls runner as short as 6/1 and Exotic Dancer freely available at double-figure odds?
I'm struggling to work that one out. Perhaps it's the perception that he's already had plenty of chances (0/2 so far), but to be fair to him he never seemed to be at his best last season, whereas this season he's going into the race in peak form.
His stablemate, Albertas Run (16/1 Ladbrokes), is no forlorn hope either. Forget his run behind Madison Du Berlais in the Levy Board Chase as he hated the soft ground and concentrate on his fine second in the King George when beaten eight lengths by Kauto Star. The ground was good that day and given similar conditions at Cheltenham (not a given with all this bad weather around) I would expect last year's RSA winner to be in the mix.
Worst Value:
Kauto Star is an obvious favourite but a vulnerable one in my opinion. Sure, he has less to prove than his stablemate Denman, and some would say nothing to prove after his imperious display when winning his third King George. However, he wouldn't want the ground to be as soft as it was last year, when his jumping went into pieces under the intense pressure, and at the current 7/4 he rates poor value.
As for Denman, it is too early to write him off and he could improve on his run at Kempton. However, let's not forget, he was put to the sword by a horse who would have been getting 23lb in a handicap, and you have to fear that he's not the horse he was 12 months ago. Ladbrokes dangle a carrot of 5/1 but I couldn't back him at double those odds.
As for Denman's conqueror, Madison Du Berlais, he has been slashed to as low as 5/1, which is a ridiculous price in my opinion. He'll win more big races on flat tracks, but I just can't have him winning the Gold Cup and he should be opposed in the place market.
Here best Gold Cup 2009 Odds
Gold Cup 2009 Runner Odds
Kauto Star 9/4 Ladbrokes
Neptune Collonges, 6/1 bet365
Denman, 5/1 Ladbrokes
Exotic Dancer, 9/1 888Sports
Madison Du Berlais, 10/1 Ladbrokes
Barber's Shop, 11/1 888Sport
Albertas Run, 16/1 Betfred
Star De Mohaison, 25/1 Stan James
Roll Along, 66/1 Stan James
Halcon Genelardais, 66/1 888Sport
Snoopy Loopy, 100/1 Ladbrokes
My Will, 100/1 Stan James
Knowhere, 100/1 VCBet
Miko de Beauchene, 150/1 William Hill
Cerium, 2000/1 Coral
(correct as of 1am Friday 13th March 2009)
