Imperial Commander is bidding to become the first horse since Best Mate to retain his crown when he lines up in Friday's Gold Cup (3.20), having scored a convincing seven-length win over Denman last year.
2010 Result: Imperial Commander, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and ridden by Paddy Brennan, 7/1 SP.
Key Trends:
Imperial Commander was the No.1 trends pick last year but falls down this year on account of being a 10-year-old - no such winner since Cool Dawn in 1998 and before him Cool Ground in 1992. At least he has a year on both Kauto Star and Denman, who are bidding to become the first Gold Cup winner aged over 10 since 1969. That said, not many 11-year-olds of their quality have lined up in the race in the past, so it might not pay to be ageist on this occasion.
At the other end of the age scale, Long Run would be the youngest winner since Mill House in 1963, although only three have tried since and two of them, The Fellow and Gloria Victis, ran with great credit and were very much in a similar mould being early-maturing French-breds.
Of more of a concern for Imperial Commander backers is his long absence from the track. When he lines up on Friday, it will be after a break of 118 days and only Garrison Savannah in the last 50 years has defied a similar absence. In his favour, he's best fresh and has lost only once after a break of 50 days or more and that was when he was beaten a nostril by Kauto Star. Denman is another to have gone AWOL having not raced since the Hennessy in November, while both horses arrive here on the back of just one run this season, which is a worry - the last 10 winners had run two to five times that season.
The King George has been a cracking guide in recent years with eight of the last 11 winners coming via that route - Long Run won this season's renewal by 12 lengths, in case you need reminding. The next best guide has been the Betfair Chase (Imperial Commander), which has highlighted the last three winners. The past 11 winners had all previously won a Grade 1 Chase, which is a big negative for Midnight Chase.
Betting-wise, this race has been kind to punters with the last 10 winners all coming from the first three in the betting, although that shouldn't put you off backing an outsider each-way as horses priced at 16/1 or bigger have finished in the first three 13 times (one win, five runners-up and seven thirds).
Major Players:
Not since 1958 has the Gold Cup field featured three previous Gold Cup winners in Imperial Commander (4/1 bet365), Kauto Star (15/2 William Hill) and Denman (7/1 Coral) - for the record, all three that year were beaten by the previous year's runner-up Kerstin. The 2011 trio occupy the first three places in the betting, yet all have something to prove in terms of their well-being: Imperial Commander sustained a cut when winning at Haydock, which forced him to miss the King George; Denman has had a breathing operation since finishing third in the Hennessy; and Kauto Star flopped in the King George last time out when carrying an infection. It doesn't help that we haven't seen much of them this season, although all are in good order and ready to roll according to their connections.
They will need to be if they are going to repel 'new kid on the block' Long Run (5/1 Coral), who came of age at Kempton last time when landing a massive public gamble. The question is: can he reproduce that form at Cheltenham? Well, past evidence is inconclusive. He was well beaten in the RSA Chase last season but put up what was a career-best effort at the time when third in the Paddy Power here in November. The gut feeling, though, is that he won't be as brilliant at Cheltenham as he is at Kempton, at least this season.
Lively Outsiders:
The Irish have not had a horse placed since War Of Attrition in 2006 but they have a couple of live candidates in Kempes (11/1 Paddy Power) and Pandorama (12/1 Ladbrokes), winners of the Hennessy Gold Cup and Lexus Chase respectively. The former went a long way to proving his stamina that day and could do even better on good spring ground. Pandorama, on the other hand, needs plenty of cut to operate at his best and connections will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in time.
In what has to be one of the most open Gold Cups for years, you could not rule out a big run from Cheltenham specialist, Midnight Chase (16/1 Coral), while Neptune Collonges (40/1 Blue Square) would come into it if the heavens opened. China Rock and What A Friend are better on top of the ground and could go well if it stays dry.
Betting Advice:
It's time to get off the fence but there are reasons for taking on everything and it's impossible to be confident about the result. I admit to having had a bit on Kempes at 66/1 before he won the Hennessy and he's not without a chance, although the price has gone and any significant rain would scupper his chances. DENMAN wouldn't mind a drop of rain, though, and he could make them all go if on a going day. His Hennessy third, when he was giving 26lb to the winner Diamond Harry, is as good a piece of form as his previous two wins in the race and he has since had a breathing operation. Throw in his record fresh and his Gold Cup form figures of 122, and his pre-race odds of 7/1 (Coral) start to make considerable appeal, although I might wait to back him in-running. If he can get into his stride over the first three fences, he's going to be difficult to pass and I won't be waiting long to get involved.
