2007 Winner: Cloudy Lane; Trainer: Donald McCain; Age: 7; Weight: 10st 11lb; SP: 15/2

Key trends:
Don’t be scared of backing an outsider as there have been some big-priced winners of this race down the years, although Cloudy Lane bucked the trend somewhat last year. Age-wise, you can put a line through anything aged 11 or older – 0 from 36 in the last 10 runnings, which is a negative for Joes Edge and Innox this year. Horses that finished first or second last time out have provided five of the last 10 runners (from around a third of the runners), while you want to avoid horses that ran over less than 3m last time out.

The contenders (best current price):
A whole host with chances, but My Immortal (7/1 Paddy Power), trained by the in-form David Pipe, will be a tough nut to crack after finishing third to Gungudu in a valuable handicap at Sandown last month. Paul Nicholls runs Officier De Reserve (11/1 sportingbet), a lightly raced ex-French chaser with a good strike rate. Donald McCain and Richard Burton (ridden two of the past three winners) teamed up successfully last season with Cloudy Lane and they have another serious contender in Idle Talk (22/1 VCbet). Joes Edge (20/1BetDirect), winner of last season’s William Hill Trophy, is the ride of Nina Carbery. Ma Yahab (11/1 sportingbet) finished third in the Doncaster race won by An Accordion, and the return to a longer trip here will suit.

The verdict:
There’s an extensive list for whom something positive can be said. However, I like the fact that David Pipe has put blinkers on My Immortal for the first time here and, if they do their stuff, he must go close. The booking of talented amateur Josh Guerriero is a big plus too.

Betting advice:
BACK – My Immortal 2pt @ 7/1 Paddy Power
NO LAY