Key trends:
- Won at class 3 level or higher – 10 winners in 10 runnings
- Won between 2m3f and 2m5f – 9/10
- Ran within the last 40 days – 9/10
- Top-five last time out - 9/10
- Carried no more than 11st – 8/10
- No older than nine – 8/10
- Ran at a previous Cheltenham Festival – 8/10
A horrible race for favourites with only market leader (Majadou 1999) obliging in the last 22 years! That said, since 1980, 22 winners were returned between 4/1 and 14/1, so it’s not all doom and gloom for punters.
This year’s jolly, Clarified (7/1 Ladbrokes), is an entirely plausible winner as he has shown some very useful form over fences, most notably when second to Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer earlier in the season, and, as a son of Accordion, he’ll appreciate the drying ground. I like him a lot but, considering he has yet to win over fences, he doesn’t look particularly well-treated off a mark of 138 (which translates to 10st 11lb in this handicap), so he’s reluctantly passed over at the current odds.
Possible dangers abound, with Three Mirrors (9/1 Boylesports) one of the more likely winners after running his best race since an encouraging fifth in the Paddy Power here in November, when a closing sixth over an inadequate trip at Doncaster last time. His trainer Ferdy Murphy can be relied upon to have him ready for this assignment. The novice Or Bleu (20/1 Sportingbet) should go well too, although the Philip Hobbs-trained runner has harshly been raised 8lbs for his latest success at Chepstow.
Perce Rock (12/1 Victor Chandler) remains well-treated despite recent success at Limerick and Punchestown, while Finger Onthe Pulse (11/1 bet365) is respected on account of his win in last season’s Jewson Chase. Year after year, festival form is found in the winner of this race’s CV, including last year’s runaway winner Mister McGoldrick (66/1!), who had previously finished third in a Champion Chase.
I could go on, but it’s time to get off the fence and predict the winner, which might come as a bit of a surprise. Denman’s brother SILVERBURN has been called some rude names in the past and it’s true to say he’s become disappointing this season. However, there have been excuses, including last time when, after running poorly at Kempton, he was found to have pus in his foot.
I know that Paul Nicholls still thinks a lot of him and is trying him in first-time blinkers here, which might just be what he needs to bring out his true ability. At a massive 40/1 with bet365 (who go five places), he’s got be worth a few bob each way.
Recommended Bet:
Silverburn 1pt each way @ 40/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, five places)