The betting for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is currently dominated by runners from across the Irish Sea, with Willie Mullins' Quevega predictably a short-priced favourite to land her third consecutive win in the 2½m contest, but there coule be another to back against the defending champion...
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It pretty much goes without saying that Quevega is the one they all have to beat. A standout in the mares division since joining Mullins, she stamped herself a very smart performer when winning this race in 2009 and then belied an absence of nearly ten months to see off Carole's Legacy by an easy 4½ lengths in last year's renewal.
Quevega had little trouble making her mark in open company next time, either, taking the step up to 3m in her stride when winning what has proved to be a strong renewal of the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown. She hasn't been seen since, however, and it's her fragile nature that offers a glimmer of light to ante-post punters looking for a bit of value elsewhere.
Voler La Vedette provides the most viable opposition to the current jolly and, unlike that rival, she has already proved that she retains all of her ability this season, winning a listed event at Punchestown before very good placed efforts in Grade 1s behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly. However, Colm Murphy's mare was firmly put in her place when over five lengths back in third last year and it's difficult to see how she can reverse that form if the pair were to meet again.
Last year's runner-up Carole's Legacy has also returned in top form and, like last season, she's already mixing hurdling and chasing to good effect, winning a listed race over timber at Kempton before chasing home Tartak in a Grade 3 handicap back over fences at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. That said, she has plenty to find with Quevega and Voler La Vedette on Timeform ratings, for all she had the latter behind last year, and she would also be better suited by 3m.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record at the Festival and the unbeaten L'Accordioniste is a very interesting contender. Far less exposed than the majority, L'Accordioniste created a big impression when winning a competitive handicap at Cheltenham in December, finishing very strongly to beat Praxiteles by 1¾ lengths going away. L'Accordioniste does have plenty to find with the principals, but she looks sure to benefit from the step up to 2½m and can't be ruled out.
The biggest threat to Quevega could well come from Prunella Dobbs's Our Girl Salley. A useful bumper winner, Our Girl Salley has created a big impression when winning both starts over hurdles, proving her effectiveness at the trip when barely off the bridle to win a listed event at Leopardstown.
Her jumping already looks an asset, something that should negate too many concerns about her inexperience, and whilst most of her wins have been on testing ground, she ran right up to the pick of her bumper form on her only start on good to soft going last season.
All in all, for those wanting a play in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle, the recommendation is to back Our Girl Salley. Quevega is sure to be shorter than her current odds of 2.34 should she arrive in one piece, but that's a big if at this early stage and current odds of 17.0 look to underestimate the chances of Prunella Dobbs's most progressive novice.
Recommendation
Back Our Girl Salley @ 17.0 for the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham
