The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (Tuesday 15th, 4.40) has only been in existence for three years and has quickly become the preserve of Quevega, who will be bidding for a hat-trick.
2010 Result: Quevega, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh, SP 6/4F
Key Stats:
As this is just the fourth running of the race, it's going to take few more years yet for any patterns to be established. That said, both Quevega and Whiteoak (the winner in 2008) would not have looked out of place in the Champion Hurdle, so it may well be the case that the speedier types, rather than the stayers, do best over this intermediate trip of 2m41/2f.
Whiteoak was a novice when winning this so inexperience isn't necessarily a disadvantage, which will encourage backers of this year's first season hurdlers: Sparky May, Our Girl Sally and L'Accordioniste. Quevega was leading home a 1-2-3 for six-year-olds last season but age isn't a serious factor as mares as old as eight and nine have previously finished in the frame.
The Irish again look to have a strong hand this year as, in addition to Quevega, they also supply the third favourite Our Girl Salley, who arrives here on a roll having won her last five starts.
Major Players:
Quevega (6/5 William Hill) is aiming to join the select band of horses to have won the same festival race three years in a row. Last year, she slammed Carole's Legacy by four-and-a-half lengths and consolidated her reputation as the best mare in training by winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown. She's been off the track since but that isn't much of a concern as she went straight to the defence of her title last year without a prep run and is clearly best fresh. Her trainer Willie Mullins reports her to be as "good as ever", so she is clearly the one they all to beat again.
The biggest danger looks to be the 'fairytale' mare Sparky May (5/1 bet365), so named on account of being born in the spring next to an electric fence. Trained in Devon by 70-year-old farmer Pat Rodford, she has proved to be a revelation this season in winning all four starts, including a Grade 2 at Ascot last time, where she had Carole's Legacy (conceding 6lb) four lengths away in second. That winning margin doesn't do justice to her superiority as she could have been named the winner a long way out, and there could be further improvement to come. With Rodford set to retire at the end of the season, it would be a 'fairytale' indeed if she can dethrone the champion.
Quevega's compatriot Our Girl Salley is unbeaten this season, yet is as big as 12/1 (William Hill), which is probably down to the fact she's trained by the relatively unknown Prunella Dobbs. She may not have been that impressive at Fairyhouse last time out but the ground was atrocious that day and she's better judged on her win in a 2m4f Listed event at Leopardstown over Christmas, where she jumped and travelled well to beat some decent sorts. The fact she was given an entry in the Neptune against the boys is an indication of the regard in which she is held.
Lively Outsiders:
There is no reason why the aforementioned Carole's Legacy (20/1 Sportingbet) should turn the tables on Quevega and Sparky May and, besides, she has alternative options at the Festival. Nigel Twiston-Davies could be double-handed with the front-running Banjaxed Girl (20/1 Stan James), whose chance would be increased if allowed an easy lead (unlikely), and L'Accordioniste (20/1 William Hill), who won her first four starts before finishing out with the washing behind Sparky May at Ascot. The yard was out of form at the time so she can be excused that run, although she too holds alternative entries. The rest are hard to fancy.
Betting Sweeteners:
Several firms are now going 'non-runner, no bet' on this race (in addition to the other 26 Festival races), including Ladbrokes, bet365, Paddy Power, Coral, Boylesports and Totesport, while Ladbrokes and bet365 are also offering Best Odds Guaranteed, meaning you can take a price safe in the knowledge that you will get paid out at the SP if it's bigger.
Betting Advice:
Quevega is many people's 'banker' of the festival but I'm not in the habit of backing horses ante post at around even money. In fact, she may well be bigger on the day as punters at Cheltenham are very price sensitive and, as a result, bookmakers tend to be more aggressive than at an ordinary meeting. With a couple of decent sorts to take her on, I wouldn't be surprised to see her drift out to 6/4, which might tempt me. Anyone looking for a rock solid each-way bet should look no further than SPARKY MAY at 5/1 (bet365, NRNB & BOG) as it's hard to see her finishing out of the frame and she has a realistic chance of upsetting the jolly.
