The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Tuesday 15th, 4.00) has been an Irish benefit since its inception in 2005 with all six renewals going to horses trained in the Emerald Isle.
2010 Result: A New Story, trained by Michael Hourigan and ridden by A P Heskin, SP 25/1.
Key Stats:
Until last year's shock, the market was a great guide with no winner going off bigger than 4/1. Indeed, nine of the last 11 winners of races run over Cheltenham's cross-country course have come from the first three in the betting, which is a big pointer to the current market leaders in betting order: Garde Champetre, L'Ami and Sizing Australia.
Anything trained in Ireland clearly merits respect but Enda Bolger has been their main man, having won the race four times and supplied the runner-up in the two races he missed out. This year, he has prospects of a 1-2-3 as, in addition to Garde Champetre and L'Ami, he's responsible for lively outsiders Arabella Boy, Freneys Well and King Johns Castle. In comparison, the record of British-trained runners stands at a miserable 0-50.
The equivalent race here in December has been a reliable guide in the past but, with that falling to the weather, the other important 'trial' race to concentrate on is the PP Hogan Memorial Chase, which went to three former winners and was won this year by Garde Champetre.
Major Players:
Dual winner Garde Champetre (9/2 bet365) clearly loves this course and must go well again, although his defeat by Lacdoudal here in November suggests age could be catching up with the 12-year-old and he will be giving away lumps of weight to younger rivals. The same comment applies to his stablemate and last year's runner-up L'Ami (8/1 Stan James), who seems destined not win at Cheltenham as his combined record over the various courses reads: 4473034222.
Sizing Australia (8/1 Stan James) is a mere whippersnapper in comparison at the age of nine and gets in here with a low weight of 10st 9lb. He was a remote 11th in this race last season but has since run third behind Lacdoudal in the November equivalent and was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Garde Champetre when the pair filled the first two places in the 2009 December version.
Lively Outsiders:
Anything Enda Bolger sends over has to be seriously considered and his Arabella Boy (14/1 Coral) could be the one to topple the old guard, having got off the mark over fences in a hot race at Fairyhouse last time out. He would be the youngest ever winner at six, though, and might have better prospects in a year or two's time, once he's got some more experience under his belt.
At the other end of the age scale, his 12-year-old stablemate King Johns Castle (14/1 Skybet) would be an interesting runner if allowed to take his chance. The 2008 Grand National runner-up lacks course experience but has been showing plenty of zest in Irish point-to-points this season and chased home L'Ami in a similar race at Punchestown last November.
Backing British-trained runners in this race has been the quickest way to the poor house but this year's challenge is headed by a couple of interesting candidates in Maljimar (12/1 William Hill), who was still in the hunt when falling at Becher's (second time) in last year's National, and Gullible Gordon (16/1 Stan James), who has an entry in this year's National and might be the type to thrive in this unique test.
Betting Sweeteners:
Several firms are now going 'non-runner, no bet' on this race (in addition to the other 26 Festival races), including Ladbrokes, bet365, Paddy Power, Coral, Boylesports and Totesport, while Ladbrokes and bet365 are also offering Best Odds Guaranteed, meaning you can take a price safe in the knowledge that you will get paid out at the SP if it's bigger.
Betting Advice:
Garde Champetre and L'Ami look sure to be on the premises again but aren't getting any younger and I'm inclined to take them on at the odds. This race has been a graveyard for British-trained runners but MALJIMAR could be the one to break the Irish monopoly. He has gone well at Cheltenham in the past, albeit on a different course, and has been given a real chance by the handicapper, having been dropped 8lb since the National. I see he's been nibbled at in the betting, which suggests he's sending out the right signals at home, and his trainer Nick Williams couldn't be in better form. Take the 12/1 with William Hill to small stakes.
