2007 Winner: Heads Onthe Ground; Trainer: Enda Bolger; Age: 10; Weight: 10st 2lb; SP: 5/2

Key trends:
Only three previous renewals to go on, but one thing's clear; back a well-fancied Irish horse that has previous experience in a cross-country race and you won’t go far wrong (100% so far). We can narrow the field down further by crossing off anything aged seven or younger (1 from 63 in all races of this ilk at Cheltenham), and any horse trained by Paul Nicholls (1 from 36).

The contenders (best current price):
The market is headed by Wonderkid (5/2 Skybet), who brushed aside last year’s winner of this race, Heads Onthe Ground (11/2 VCbet), by eight lengths over course and distance in December. Grand Champetre (5/1 Boylesports) was a faller in that race, but won a similar type of race to this over 3m on his next start at Punchestown, with Heads Onthe Ground (3lb better off here) again filling the runner-up spot. Royal Auclair (16/1 Paddy Power) and Ivoire De Beaulieu (20/1 Boylesports), third and fourth in Wonderkid’s Cheltenham race should go well, while Kilbeggan Blade (25/1 Totesport), trained by the in-form Tom George, is the most interesting of the newcomers to this type of racing.

The verdict:
Gone are the days when we could pay the Cheltenham expenses by backing Spotthedifference around here, but the Irish have a new ‘Wonderkid’ on the block and he looks one of the bets of the meeting. Trained by Tony Martin, who’s had his fair share of winners at this meeting, he has been raised 11lb for his course and distance win but could have won with another 11lb on his back, and will be pin sharp for this after a recent blowout over hurdles.

Betting advice:

BACK - Wonderkid 4pt @ 5/2 Skybet
LAY - Anything Paul Nicholls runs (see above trends)