2007 Winner: Pedrobob; Trainer: Anthony Mullins; Age: 9; Weight: 10st 0lb; SP: 12/1

Key trends:
In a race where the field is invariably close to 30 runners, the use of key trends should help us narrow down the field a bit and, fortunately, there are a couple of strong trends to go on in this race. Firstly, five or six-year-olds have taken 36 of the last 45 renewals, with just four winners since 1959 being aged seven or over. Secondly, look to current, in-form horses as 16 of the last 19 winners had finished in the first four in their previous outing.

Also, pay close attention to anything that ran in the totesport Trophy, as this race has highlighted four of the last five winners, with Spirit Leader doing the double in 2003 – can Wingman do the same this year? Surprisingly for a race of this ultra-competitive nature, 32 winners in the last 33 renewals started no bigger than 16/1, so don’t look too far beyond the obvious contenders.

The contenders:
Tony Martin, who knows what it takes to win big handicaps here, runs the red-hot favourite Psycho (6/1 Ladbrokes). After a pipe-opener at Punchestown on his reappearance, he fairly romped home in a Leopardstown handicap hurdle in January and would have followed up in a hotter contest last month but for falling at the last – he still looks well-handicapped. The home team is headed by the totesport Trophy first and fourth in Wingman (12/1 William Hill) and Mohayer (20/1 bet365), while Paul Nicholls’ best hope looks to be I’msingingtheblues (12/1 Stan James). Mon Michel (12/1 Ladbrokes), like Wingman, is trained by the 2m handicap hurdle king Gary Moore and should go well.

The verdict:
Psycho will be a popular choice for the traditional Festival getting-out stakes, but he is priced on his trainer’s reputation more than anything, and I’m drawn to the Gary Moore-trained runners at double-figure odds. Wingman is 10lb higher for winning the totesport Trophy, but he’s a tough sort, while Mon Michel has a big race like this in him. Split your stakes.

Betting advice:
BACK – Wingman 1pt @ 12/1 William Hill / Mon Michel 1pt @ 12/1 Ladbrokes
NO LAY