Despite the absence of Binocular, this year's Champion Hurdle (Tuesday 15th, 3.20) is undoubtedly the most anticipated race of the Festival
2010 Result: Binocular, trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by AP McCoy, 9/1 SP
Key Stats:
Here's a killer stat for anyone fancying the new race favourite Menorah. Only three winners in the past 30 years, and none in the last 16, had not run in the same calendar year - the last two favourites failed on this stat and were beaten. He would also be the first reigning Supreme Novices' winner to follow up in this race since Bula in 1970, although two - Brave Inca and Hors La Loi - subsequently won the Champion. The Neptune, won by Peddlers Cross, has been the better guide with the last four winners taking part yielding two wins and two thirds.
Sticking with Festival form, seven of the last 10 winners had finished in the first three in the previous season's Champion Hurdle, which is a pointer to the nine-year-old Khyber Kim. The other 'trial' races to concentrate on are the Fighting Fifth (Peddlers Cross), Kingwell Hurdle (Mille Chief) and the two Grade 1s run at Leopardstown, both won by Hurricane Fly.
Punjabi (22/1), the shock winner in 2009 and Binocular (9/1), being the least fancied of Nicky Henderson's trio of runners, were both outside the first six in the betting, but only one other horse outside that price bracket has prevailed in the previous 18 years.
The 2008 winner Katchit broke a long-standing trend when he became the first five-year-old to win since See You Then in 1985, and their record now stands at 1-85 - Mille Chief and Clerks Choice represent that age bracket this year. At the other end of the age scale, there have been only three winners older than eight since 1951, which has to be a worry for Khyber Kim backers.
Major Players:
Menorah (10/3 bet365) looks almost certain to go off favourite now and rightly so as he has put together an impressive 111 Cheltenham record, which includes wins in this season's Greatwood and International Hurdles. He's hard not to like as he boasts a tidy turn of foot and has proved he can handle the hustle and bustle of a Cheltenham race. Despite their being only 11 runners, he should should still get the fast pace he needs.
Hurricane Fly (4/1 bet365) has looked great in Ireland, winning four Grade 1s on the bounce, but his claims are based on a single line of form - his continual dominance of Solwhit, a horse found out in last year's Champion. That said, he's clearly classy and might still be good enough, although it remains to be seen whether he can jump and travel at speed around Cheltenham. His lack of course experience and an inclination to jump right, have to be a worry in that respect.
Peddlers Cross (4/1 Paddy Power) was probably flattered to beat a clearly underdone Binocular in the Fighting Fifth and his virtual walkover at Kelso last time taught us nothing, but his novice form looks remarkably strong and he lines up here unbeaten in seven starts. The one worry with him is that he appeared to get slightly outpaced in the Neptune (2m4f), losing a couple of lengths turning for home, before picking up again the straight. This is a stiff 2m1/2f but he might just find things happening a bit too quickly and wouldn't want the race to develop into a speed test.
Lively Outsiders:
Oscars Whisky (8/1 general) has to come into it on his win at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, although he was left for dead after the last in the Supreme last season and the jury is out as to whether he's a true two-miler. Dunguib (9/1 Blue Square) went off the red-hot 4/5 favourite for the Supreme after four easy wins over hurdles, but could only finish third to Menorah. His form since then has been unconvincing and he has something to prove now.
Mille Chief (14/1 Boylesports) only just scrambled home in the Kingwell from Celestial Halo and that form wouldn't be good enough, although he continues to work like a dream at home and his trainer Alan King's assessment that he's "a much better horse than Katchit" has to be respected. Last year's runner-up Khyber Kim (14/1 Ladbrokes) is dangerous to dismiss but has to prove he's the same horse he was 12 months ago. Last season's County Hurdle winner Thousand Stars (25/1 William Hill)wasn't far behind Hurricane Fly on his most recent outing and will be staying on better than most.
Betting Sweeteners:
Most firms are Best Odds Guaranteed but Boylesports have trumped them all by offering to refund losing bets on horses who finish second in the opening four races of the Festival, which includes the Champion of course.
Betting Advice:
Of the front three in the betting, I'm most keen to take on Hurricane Fly for the reasons given above, and if he's travelling with ease approaching the last, I will be hitting the lay button, price allowing. I tipped up Mille Chief ante post and still have faith in him, despite that Wincanton performance, and wouldn't put anyone off going in again at 14/1 with Boylesports, given their fantastic concession. I can also see THOUSAND STARS running a big race. My guess is that Overturn will make it a strong test for Peddlers Cross and Willie Mullins' horse could well stay on past beaten horses to make the frame. Back him at around 11/2 in Betfair's place only market.
