2007 Winner: Sublimity; Trainer: John Carr; Age: 7; SP: 16/1

Key trends:
Two very strong trends to take on board here. Only one recent winner had not won their prep race; in fact, 21 of the last 24 winners had won last time out. That’s a worry for backers of last year’s winner Sublimity, although his previous course experience counts for plenty - 15 of the last 19 winners had won at Cheltenham before - so it’s hard to see him being out of the frame.

The AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has been the key prep race in recent seasons - six of the past 12 Champion Hurdle winners had taken part, and this year’s winner Sizing Europe couldn‘t have been more impressive. Age would appear to count against Katchit as five-year-olds are 0 from 73 since 1985.

The contenders (best current price):
One golden age of Irish-trained hurdlers may have passed, but not much has changed with three of the first four in the betting all being trained in Ireland. Reigning champion Sublimity (5/1 general) folded tamely on his return to action behind Britain’s top-rated challenger Osana (6/1 Sportingbet) at Cheltenham in December, but more can be expected on what will presumably be better ground on Tuesday.  Whether he can cope with Sizing Europe (9/4 Paddy Power, Boylesports) is another matter as there’s no doubting that one’s demolition of a high class field in the aforementioned AIG race. Harchibald (13/2 Stan James) is back seemingly as good as ever, but can he be trusted to put his best foot forward? Both Katchit (9/1 general) and Straw Bear (28/1 Sportingbet) have place claims on their best form, as would Edward O’Grady’s Catch Me (20/1 Ladbrokes) on soft ground.

The verdict:
I’ve agonised over this race but keep coming back to Sizing Europe, who has done nothing wrong this season and looks to have had an ideal preparation, unlike last year’s winner Sublimity. Any significant rain would also increase confidence in Henry de Bromhead’s six-year-old. I’m a big fan of David Pipe’s Osana, whose front-running style reminds me of his father’s Champion hurdler Make A Stand, but I reckon this trailblazer will set the race up for Sizing Europe. Take the 9/4 now as I can see him going off less than 2/1 on the day..

Betting advice:

BACK - Sizing Europe 3pt @ 9/4 Paddy Power, Boylesports
LAY - Sublimity - not had an ideal preparation and his suspect stamina will be tested to the full this time (Betfair)