What are the current best-value bets - and worst - for this year's Champion Chase?
Best Value:
Who can beat Master Minded? Well, if the ante post market is anything to go by, he's already home and hosed and realistically only an unforeseen injury or an uncharacteristic lapse of concentration in the jumping department can stop him. However, unless your name is Harry Findlay, you won't be lumping on at the current best price of 1/3 (general), and the only sensible course of action is an each way bet or a bet without the favourite.
Big Zeb (12/1 Paddy Power) and Petit Robin (14/1 Totesport) have already been well-backed by the each-way thieves and there's still some mileage in their current prices, although the win part of the bet is virtually redundant, as it's hard to see either of them troubling Master Minded. Of the two, I much prefer Petit Robin as he has the stronger form in the book having finished second to Master Minded in the Victor Chandler Chase at Sandown, and the switch back to a left-handed track should see him in an even better light.
However, if there's one horse in the country with the form to beat (yes beat!) Master Minded, it's WELL CHIEF. Granted, you have to back to the spring of 2005 to find his best form, but he was rated 178 at his peak and if he turns up in anything like peak form he would have better claims than most. And let's not forget, he was even money favourite for this race in 2007 only to fall early.
The problem in backing him now is that he might not even turn up. The fact that he has had just three races in four years says it all about his fragile legs and, ideally, you'd want to see him walking into the paddock before lumping on. However, his trainer, David Pipe, has this week issued an upbeat bulletin on his health ("swum more miles than Michael Phelps in getting fit") and it's not insignificant that his price has been nibbled at (25/1 into 20/1 with Stan James), although I'd rather take a shorter price with bet365.
The Stoke-based outfit have gone out on a limb by offering non-runner-no-bet on all Cheltenham races, meaning we can back Well Chief each way at 16/1 outright, or 5/1 without the favourite, safe in the knowledge that if he doesn't run we'll get our money back. Surely, he won't be those prices on the day.
Click here to back Well Chief NRNB
Worst Value
Voy Por Ustedes, who simply loves Cheltenham, would give Master Minded a race, but he is almost certain to run in the Ryanair over 2m5f, which is also the likely target for Tidal Bay, providing he recovers from a cut sustained last time out.
Take them out and Big Zeb is the one most likely to chase Master Minded home, according to the bookmakers - Victor Chandler make him their 3/1 favourite without the jolly, while Blue Square are even shorter at 9/4. However, Colm Murphy's eight-year-old has been let down by his jumping on more than one occasion (fell last time out), and his overall form - beat Watson Lake half a length prior to his fall - leaves him with a mountain to climb. He might have been a shade of value at 16/1 but current single figure quotes are certainly not.
Two others I have reservations about are Briareus, who ran a good race when fourth in the King George but Cheltenham is not his track, and Twist Magic, who dropped away tamely in this race last year and looked to down tools when running terribly at Kempton last time.
