The Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase (Tuesday 15th, 5.15) is in effect the old 'Jewson', although the race has been switched from the New Course to the Old and is being run over the slightly shorter trip of 2m41/2f.
Key Stats:
All previous six winners of the Jewson had a minimum of three starts over fences and all were either first and second last time out, with only the Irish-trained Finger Onthe Pulse yet to win over fences. That said, as with the race's hurdling equivalent (the Fred Winter), it pays not to show your hand to the handicapper too early, and all six winners had been beaten on their first two chase starts.
The last five winners were all rated between 133 and 139. With the race being downgraded to a 0-140, horses from that narrow weight band will now be near the top of the weights. However, it might pay to stick with them as this is a compressed handicap and they won't be giving too much weight away.
L'Antartique provided a 20/1 shock in 2007 but the other five winners were priced between 9/2 and 12/1. Interestingly, four of them had run at the previous year's Cheltenham Festival, as had last year's 1-2-3-4, which is an even more significant stat when you consider that less than half the field fitted that profile.
Major Players:
As you'd expect, this is a wide open handicap and a case can be made for plenty of the runners. However, should he line up, there is bound to plenty of interest in the Paul Nicholls-trained Definity (12/1 William Hill), who looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 136. A useful hurdler, he has improved with racing over fences, getting off the mark at Fontwell on his penultimate start, before running Bakbenscher close at Exeter. He's a similar type to the 135-rated Chapoturgeon, Nicholls' only previous winner in 2009.
Ferdy Murphy, who won with L'Antartique, has another likely sort in Divers (10/1 Paddy Power), who was noted making eye-catching late headway when fifth to RSA Chase favourite Time For Rupert in a novices' chase here in November. He jumps really well and arrives here on the back of a win at Musselburgh. He wouldn't want the ground too soft, though.
Nicky Henderson has made a host of entries but the betting suggests his best chances lie with either Quantitativeeasing (12/1 Sportingbet) or Aigle D'Or (14/1 William Hill). Both ran at last year's Festival with the former running by far the best when fifth in the Coral Cup behind Spirit River. On Borrowed Wings (14/1 Boylesports) was not disgraced when eighth in last season's ultra competitive Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and has taken really well to fences this term.
Lively Outsiders:
It's impossible to list all those with chances here but Tullamore Dew (14/1 William Hill) has more going for him than most. He beat all bar Spirit River in last season's Coral Cup, despite being an unconsidered 80/1 shot, and has already bettered his hurdles rating of 139 in four chase starts, winning two and finishing runner-up twice to a couple of smart sorts in Medermit and Mamlook. He's done all his winning this season on heavy but has always been considered best on good ground.
Betting Sweeteners:
With so many of the entries having alternative engagements, the 'non-runner, no bet' concession offered by several firms - Ladbrokes, bet365, Paddy Power, Coral, Boylesports and Totesport at the time of writing - really comes into its own. Of course, betting margins will be squeezed as a result and there is no guarantee you will get a better price by betting early.
Betting Advice:
Compared to the other Festival handicaps, this race has been relatively punter-friendly and there are some strong trends to go on too. That encourages me to have a bet and the one that takes the eye is Nick Gifford's TULLAMORE DEW. His best effort this season came at Plumpton when running Medermit, who is disputing favouritism for the Arkle, to three and a quarter lengths. Bearing in mind the winner is now rated 155 after winning a Grade 1, Tullamore Dew looks well-treated here off a mark 139 and his current price of 14/1 (William Hill) would shorten further should Alan King's grey win or even get placed in the Arkle.
Should he win at the Festival, he will pick up a £60,000 bonus, thanks to his win at Plumpton in January, so you can be sure that Gifford will run him in the race he has the best chance in. He's also in the Arkle and Byrne Group Plate, but the Centenary looks by far his best chance.
