What are the current best-value bets - and worst - for this year's Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle?
Best Value:
It's a case of wait and see on the Mullins trio at this stage, so the one to back now is KARABAK (6/1 Ladbrokes) who, barring mishaps, is pretty much guaranteed to run.
After a couple of runs in bumpers early last year, Alan King's six-year-old was beaten by on his hurdling debut at Ascot in November, but has gone from strength to strength since. He went to Cheltenham on his next start, where he was dropping back to 2m1f and, despite being hampered two out, he beat the useful Mahonia easily, powering up the hill to win going away by nine lengths.
If that was good then his latest start at Ascot was exceptional. Up against one of the strongest fields of novices assembled this season, and carrying a 10lb penalty for his Cheltenham win (meaning he was giving weight away all round), he fairly demolished his rivals winning by a mightily impressive 14 lengths. The second and third home, Kangaroo Court and Somersby, are both highly regarded, so the form looks rock-solid, and considering that King's runners tend to improve from race to race, there should be better to come.
So, the advice is clear, snap up the 6/1 now as he could well be a shorter price come the day of the race and after Mullins has whittled down his team.
Click here to back Karabak
Worst Value:
Diamond Harry is unbeaten in six runs - four of them over hurdles (including the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle) - and looks a high class novice. What's more, he has proven form on all ground and at Cheltenham. So why can't I back him at the current 7/2?
Well, it's the manner of his victories, particularly at Cheltenham last time, that make me uneasy. He's a relentless galloper and is going to be some horse when sent chasing, but his hurdles technique leaves something to be desired, while his tendency to veer left is a big concern. This trait was particularly pronounced in his last run and at Cheltenham, in much his stiffest test so far against a big field of top novices, this may well cost him dear.
Throw in the fact that the last seven Ballymore favourites and the last 11 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten and there's a strong case for taking him on, although I'd rather find one to beat him than lay him at this stage.