2007 Winner: Massini's Maguire; Trainer: Philip Hobbs; Age: 6; SP: 20/1

Key trends:
This used to be race that punters could get stuck into with some confidence. Between 1990 and 2000, only one winner started longer than 8/1 - but times are changing, well slightly. Five of the last six winners have started longer than that, although the majority of the five were fancied and no bigger than 12/1 on the day, which suggests that we should still be concentrating on the first six in the betting. But discount any of these that haven't run in a graded race last time out - nine of the past 10 winners had done so.

Hurdling experience counts for plenty with seven winners (again out of the last 10) having run at least four times - a big negative for Aigle D’Or - while decent flat handicapper Group Captain has to overcome the modest record of ex-flat horses. Put a line through anything that didn’t finish first or second last time out, and all four-year-olds for that matter - they have not won this since Crystal Spirit in 1991.

The contenders (best current price):
The Irish have won this race only twice in the past decade but they look to have a strong hand this year with Forpadydeplasterer (5/1 Ladbrokes), Trafford Lad (8/1 general) and Venalmer (14/1 sportingbet) all prominent in the betting. The home challenge is led by Nicky Henderson’s Aigle D’Or (11/2 BetDirect), Alan King’s Group Captain (11/2 Boylesports) and Paul Nicholls’ Breedsbreeze (8/1 general), and all three bring strong form to the table. Fiveforthree (11/1 sportingbet) and County Zen (20/1 Paddy Power) have alternative engagements, but wouldn’t be out of it if running here instead.

The verdict:
The front three in the betting look way too short. The lack of experience is a major concern for Aigle D’Or, while I'm not convinced Group Captain will stay well enough. He looked good over 2m1f at Exeter last time and over 2m3f at Taunton the time before, but 2m5f on soft ground (plenty of rain forecast) might be stretching his stamina. Any rain would be a major plus for the main Irish hope, Forpadydeplasterer, who is bred to stay and has Grade 1 form in the book after beating Cork All Star (last season’s Champion Bumper winner) last time out. However, that form might not be good enough -Cork All Star has been placed in three graded novices but can’t jump for toffee - and I prefer the chances of fellow Irish raider Trafford Lad, who was trying to concede 7lb to Venalmer when narrowly beaten in a Grade 2 at Naas last time. He could improve again and, as he also fits all the trends, he’ll do for me.

Betting advice:

BACK - Trafford Lad 1pt each way @ 8/1 general
LAY (Betfair) - Aigle D’Or - for the reasons given above; besides, I don't think the race he won at Cheltenham was that good.