Arkle Trophy Chase Tips - Riverside Theatre a Nice Price to Upset Ireland's 'Big Two' in the Arkle
The Irish look to have a strong hand in the Arkle Trophy Chase (2.05) over 2m with five challengers priced at 20/1 or less, including their 'big two', Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe.
The Favourite
Of the pair, the poisoned chalice of favouritism (see key stat) is almost certainly going to be carried by Captain Cee Bee (10/3 William Hill), who is no stranger to festival success having won the Supreme Novices' two years ago. He's had his problems since but he's won two of his three chase starts and might be unbeaten but for falling at Leopardstown when upsides and travelling better than Sizing Europe. He also made an error at the final fence when winning at Naas in February, so backers might want to hide behind the sofa if he's in contention approaching the last at Cheltenham.
The Dangers
Some people think Sizing Europe (11/2 Coral) would have still won at Leopardstown had Captain Cee Bee stood up but they are in the minority and I'm not one of them. That said, his trainer Henry de Bromhead is convinced he wasn't at his best that day and the break he's had since will have done him the world of good as he's best fresh.
His position as second favourite has been usurped recently by the well-backed Somersby (4/1 bet365), who jumped like a buck when winning at Sandown in December, his second win over fences from two starts. Third to Go Native and Medermit in last season's Supreme Novices', he has the potential to be top-class over the bigger obstacles, although he is considered more of a 3m prospect by his trainer Henrietta Knight and might therefore find things happening a bit too quick. In which case, Riverside Theatre (8/1 Coral) might be the pick of the British contenders. Having shown lots of promise over hurdles, he has landed his first two chase starts without breaking sweat and has beaten some useful rivals in the process. Interestingly, Knight rates him a bigger danger than Ireland's big two.
The Irish are also represented by Sportsline (8/1 Coral) and Osana (16/1 Totesport) who are far from mugs and can be given a chance in a far from vintage renewal of this race.
Longshot
I tipped up and backed Kangaroo Court ante post (as well as Long Run!) at 66/1 and, although yet to be confirmed a definite runner, he is still the most interesting outsider and deserves to be shorter than 25/1 (Ladbrokes) based on his two chase wins. If the ground was genuinely good on the first day (unlikely), I'd be quite excited about his chance.
Key Stat
A race for fancied runners - but not favourites. Since Waterloo Boy scored at 20/1 in 1989, only one winner has started bigger than 9/1, although only one of those has been clear market leader.
Verdict
This race is always run at a blistering pace and tests horses ability to jump at speed, so can how can Captain Cee Bee be favourite given his record? I'll be taking him on for sure but finding one to beat him is no easy matter. Obviously, I hope Kangaroo Court runs but the one I keep coming back to is RIVERSIDE THEATRE. He was only just behind Somersby over hurdles at Aintree last spring and he's a better horse now. Simply electric on his chase debut at Newbury in November, he is clearly best fresh so it's in his favour he hasn't run since winning at Kempton's Christmas meeting. At 8/1 at Coral, he is the right price too.
