The Arkle Trophy Challenge Chase over 2m (Tuesday 15th, 2.05pm) is always run at a furious pace and there is no room for error in the jumping department; the downfall of several leading fancies down the years.
2010 Result: Sizing Europe, trained by Henry De Bromhead and ridden by Andrew Lynch, 6/1 SP.
Key Stats:
Market leaders have fared badly in recent years; Azertyuiop (5/4) being the last favourite to oblige in 2003. That's more a reflection of the open nature of the race and this year's renewal is no different, with three horses -Medermit, Finian's Rainbow and Ghizao - jostling for favouritism. The second, third and fourth favourites, however, have a great record with no winner since the turn of the century returning bigger than 9/1.
Jumping at speed is the name of the game, yet past hurdling achievements are significant with 10 of the last 11 winners being rated 142+ over hurdles. That bodes well for Starluck (160), if he runs, and the next best-rated, Medermit (158). With an end-to-end gallop assured, stamina is also an important asset with half of the last 36 winners having won or placed over 2m4f+.
The key trials have proved to be: the November Novices’ Chase (won by Ghizao from Captain Chris), which has provided two winners and two seconds since 2002; the Kingmaker Chase (won by Finian’s Rainbow), with two winners and five placed horses since 1997; and the Irish Arkle (won by Realt Dubh). Nicky Henderson with three wins has the best record of current trainers.
Major Players:
Medermit (4/1 Ladbrokes) has taken a while to get the hang of jumping fences but looked the part when winning the Grade One Scilly Novices' Chase over 2m4f at Sandown last time (jumped soundly) and his trainer Alan King considers him his best chance of a winner at the meeting. The horse he beat at Sandown, Captain Chris, has since boosted the form by hacking up in the Pendil Novices' Chase, albeit against two inferior rivals.
Finian's Rainbow (9/2 Sportingbet) will arrive at Cheltenham with 3-3 record over fences, although some will crab the fact he's beaten just seven rivals in running up that sequence. His latest win at Warwick was his least impressive to date but he resented being held up that day and will be better when allowed to bowl along in front. Nicky Henderson fancies him to go well and he should know an Arkle winner when he sees one.
Ghizao (4/1 bet365) was the weakest of the market leaders over hurdles, although he only had four runs in that sphere and, as a big scopey sort, was always going to be a better chaser. That has proved to be the case this season with two wins from three runs, including at Cheltenham, where his record now stands at two wins and two seconds from just four starts. Jumps really well in the main.
The Irish have won the last two renewals and they have a live candidate this year in Realt Dubh (10/1 Ladbrokes), who recorded his second Grade 1 win over fences in the Irish Arkle last time out. He's remarkably consistent, having made the first three on 13 of his 15 starts under rules, and could be still improving.
Lively Outsiders:
Captain Chris (12/1 Totesport) finally got his head in front last time after a run of four seconds and probably has the best potential of any horse in the field. The problem with him is his jumping as it still looked novicey at Kempton and the fact he has hung and jumped right, suggests he is best going right-handed. Rock Noir (33/1 Stan James) could only finish fourth in the Sandown race won by Medermit, but was impressive on his previous start at Warwick and his form in France was out of the top drawer. Soft ground appears to suit him best, although he also holds entries in the Jewson and Grand Annual.
Betting Sweeteners:
Ladbrokes and bet365 are going 'non-runner, no bet', while bet365 are also going Best Odds Guaranteed, meaning you can take a price safe in the knowledge that you will get paid out at the SP if it's bigger. Boylesports will refund all losing win single bets and the win part of each-way bets should your selection finish second in the race, regardless of who wins it.
Betting Advice:
At this stage, it's difficult to predict which horse will go off favourite, let alone find the winner. Still, this race often goes to a fancied horse and, of the market leaders, Ghizao could be the one as he jumps great and loves Cheltenham. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 4/1 with bet365 (BOG). The Stoke outfit also go 25/1 on ROCK NOIR and that looks a price worth taking now they are going 'non-runner, no bet'. He's been in-and-out over fences in this country but has the ability to go close at this level and if Tony McCoy can get him into a good rhythm, he could easily outrun those odds.
