Novice chases are known for their unpredictability and the 2m3f race at Taunton on Thursday ran true to type from early on when Pepporoni Pete, a well-backed second favourite, shipped his jockey Sam Thomas at the first. At this stage, those who had backed the David-Pipe-trained Acambo to win the race (me included!), would have been feeling pretty confident about collecting, but it was to be Triggernometry’s lucky day.
 
Acambo had taken up the running as the field went down the back straight for the final time and had generally jumped well. However, coming down to the last, he was challenged by Russian Around (matched at a low of 1.21 on Betfair) who was still travelling well when falling. A split second later, Acambo (matched at 1.05 on Betfair’s win market and 1.01 for a place!) was also on the deck after losing his footing on the landing side of the fence, handing Triggernometry, who would have finished third, an unexpected win.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the race on ‘A Question Of Sport’ in a few year’s time but, for what it’s worth, I think Acambo would have held on and I certainly wouldn’t write off his Arkle chances. Paddy Power eased him out to 16/1 after the race, with Russian Around as low as 12/1 with Boylesports, which is a crazy price considering his inexperience. I know Acambo has won going right-handed, but I think he’ll be better going the other way round (jumped left at several fences) and mixing it with stronger company (they went a crawl early on), when he will enjoy chasing a more exacting gallop.
 
Sticking with the Arkle, the betting has a very open look to it and punters with a strong opinion on the race are able to help themselves to some fancy prices. Saturday’s Cheltenham winner Tidal Fury is a general favourite for the race, but he’s also 10/1 market leader with totesport for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase over 3m. If he was mine, I would go for the two miler as the race is always run at an end-to-end gallop which will suit him. However, take him out and it is 16/1 the field, so what about a punt on Noland at 20/1 with Stan James?
 
According to his trainer Paul Nicholls, he’s “taking longer than I thought; he’s going beautifully, but there’s no point in getting him back until he’s 100 per cent.” Granted, he’s been off the track for a long time due to injury, but there’s no doubting his class, and if wins impressively first time up (and you can rely on his trainer to find him a suitable opportunity), his price will crash.
 
Latest Arkle Chase betting (best prices): 
Tidal Bay (12 Paddy Power) , Acambo (16 Paddy Power) , Big Bucks (16 betdirect) , Aran Concerto (20 bet365) , French Accordion (20 Paddy Power) , Glencove Marina (20 William Hill) , Hide The Evidence (20 Boylesports) , Noland (20 Stan James), Skys The Limit (20 Stan James) , Straw Bear (20 totesport) , Wins Now (20 Blue Square)