2007 Winner: My Way De Solzen; Trainer: Alan King; Age: 7; SP: 7/2

Key trends:
The big yards have cleaned up in this race, with Alan King, Martin Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls training nine of the past 10 winners, the one exception being Moscow Flyer who was trained by Jessica Harrington. Of the big four, only Nicholls is represented this year with Noland and Marodima.

All bar one of these winners had finished in the first two in all completed chases, which is a big negative for Mahogany Blaze (3rd) and Clopf (fell).  French-breds have taken seven of the last 13 runnings, while those aged five to seven have won nine of the last 10 renewals. Also, proven hurdling class counts for plenty, and the one decent hurdler from a stable proven in this race is...you guessed it, Noland.

The contenders (best current price):
Noland (9/4 general) aside, this is a wide-open affair. Mahogany Blaze (9/1 Paddy Power) has been mixing it with the best over fences and has solid form in the book. Tidal Bay (7/1 Ladbrokes), former ante post favourite, is still in the SunAlliance Chase but is more likely to run here, where he’ll again be taken on by Leslingtaylor (11/1 general), who beat him by a neck last time out at Doncaster. Krugoyrova (16/1 general) and Ring The Boss (10/1 general), first and second in the Kingmaker at Warwick, bring useful form to the table, while the Irish are well-represented with Clopf (10/1 Totesport) and Tyne Again (11/1 William Hill).

The verdict:
The trends strongly point to Noland and, having won the 2006 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, he has crucial festival form in the book. That being said, he’s hardly value at his current price, and I'm going to take him on with Tidal Bay. Remember, he was second in last season’s Ballymore Properties and nothing he has done over fences has given me the impression that a drop back to the minimum trip will be a problem, as he travels so well. In fact, the faster they go, the better he jumps, according to his trainer Howard Johnson. Obviously, it’s a concern that his yard has been under a cloud recently, but that is factored into his price, which is value at around the 7/1 mark.

Betting advice:

BACK - Tidal Bay 2pt @ 7/1 Ladbrokes
LAY - Kruguyrova - front runners don’t have a great record in the race and is without the hefty weight allowance given to five-year-olds in the past.