Fernando Torres is currently rated 50/50 to play against Manchester United on Sunday and his presence (or not) on the pitch could have a huge bearing on whether the match breaks the 2.5 goals barrier.
With some doubts surrounding Liverpool's form and more importantly severe doubts as to whether Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard will team up on Sunday, Betfair odds on a home win have been on the drift all week. It's interesting to note that seven days ago Liverpool were favourites to win this fixture at 2.62, then hit 3.25 and are now still as big as 3.1.
That's a huge price for a top class team playing at home who have scored 14 goals in their last three home league games. Have Betfair players overreacted to results and injury news from Anfield or is it a case of they're still short enough, as my colleague Mathew Walton has argued?
I am interested in a situation like this, as there is always a point when the market goes too far and going against the crowd remains one of the most important strategies a bettor can implement. But how can we take advantage of this move in our under and over 2.5 goal market?
First of all I write this column not knowing whether Gerrard or Torres will make it onto the pitch on Sunday, but I feel it unlikely both will. Gerrard must be a huge doubt, but apparently Torres is better than 50/50.
Interestingly, Liverpool have done ok when their captain hasn't played.
According to my research, since 2000 Liverpool have been 'Gerrardless' in the league 80 times, and during this time they have won 48, drawn 13, and lost 19 games scoring 138 goals and conceding 72. That's an average of 1.7 goals per game scored, and 0.8 goals conceded. When Torres didn't play last season (16 times) Liverpool won nine, drew five and lost two, scoring 30 times and conceding 12 - giving a goals for average of 1.9 and goals against average of 1.3. On the five occasions last year when both failed to play, Liverpool won three, drew one and lost one.
The last ten encounters between these two sides have produced seven victories for Man Utd, while they have won four of the last six at Anfield - three of which were 0-1 wins, and six of these games were under 2.5 goal games. At Anfield, four of the last six have been under 2.5 goal affairs. There have been goals at Anfield of late, but the opposition have been poor. I feel this game will be a tactical affair with few chances. Last season Liverpool drew 7 of their 19 home games, while United scored just 25 goals away from home, conceding just 11 times.
Recommendation
Last season we recommended a successful 1 point bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.60. I know both teams are conceding goals and have looked shaky at the back, but the 1.79 for the unders is far too big here even if Torres does end up playing in the end.
1pt Under 2.5 goals Liverpool v Man Utd @ 1.79 @ Betfair
Reproduced with permission from Betfair