The sums may be small by Betfair standards – at the time of writing the market has matched just shy of £28,000 – but the betting fluctuations on Kauto Star for Saturday’s Tingle Creek are extreme, to say the least.

He is currently a 4-1 chance on Betfair, but was backed at 11-10 when the market first opened and laid at a high of 13-1 this morning.

Paul Nicholls warned punters on ATR today that he wouldn’t be making a decision before speaking to owner Clive Smith, and to the connections of Twist Magic, tonight. And that uncertainty has led to some severe market changes on Betfair.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: “I know Clive has some reservations about there only being an 18-day gap between the Tingle Creek and the King George this year, and of course the latter race is the middle leg of the Betfair Million.

“But I suppose you look at each race in isolation. And when you see Voy Por Ustedes trading as the 13-8 favourite, and remember how Kauto Star dismissed him by 7 lengths in the race in soft ground last year, then you have to be tempted.

“But Betfair punters clearly think Kauto Star’s participation is unlikely and he is currently a 4-1 chance, having won the race as a 4-9 shot in 2006.

“Twist Magic is similarly unwanted and an 8-1 chance, but the big market springer is their stablemate Hoo La Baloo, backed from 189-1 to just 24-1.”

To win Tingle Creek – Betfair bet: 13-8 Voy Por Ustedes, 10-3 Monet’s Garden, 4-1 Kauto Star, 13-2 Ashley Brook, 8-1 Twist Magic, 24-1 Hoo La Baloo.

Prices as at 1.30pm

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