Semi-final preview of Italy v Germany. Best bet: Italy U21s to win @ [2.4 @ betfair].
Italy against Germany may be one of international football's classic clashes, but Friday's last-four meeting (7.45pm kick-off UK time) threatens to be a one-sided affair if what we've seen at the European Under-21 Championship so far is any sort of guide.
After a slow start in their 0-0 draw against Serbia, Pierluigi Casiraghi's Azzurrini have gone on to play some excellent football and underline exactly why they went into the finals as one of the ante-post favourites to lift the trophy. A clinically achieved 2-1 win over hosts Sweden in their second game put one foot in the semi-finals and Casiraghi's men made sure of a last-four berth with another 2-1 win, over Belarus, in their final group game.
Despite Italy being associated historically (fairly or unfairly) with defensive football, it was their attacking players who arrived at the tournament with the biggest reputations of all, and their starlets haven't let us down so far. Sebastian Giovinco has shown flashes of the magic that may one day make him a worthy successor to Roberto Baggio and Alessandro Del Piero in a Juventus shirt, Inter's Mario Balotelli scored a magnificent opener against Sweden before being sent off (he returns from suspension for this match) and Robert Acquafresca - who netted 14 goals for Cagliari in Serie A last season - has scored three times in three games.
It's difficult to see Germany stopping the might of the Italians' attacking trio, for Horst Hrubesch's side is far from a vintage line-up. They were lucky to draw 0-0 against Spain in their opening game, laboured to a 2-0 win over Finland in their second outing (Benedikt Howedes' opening goal came against the run of play) and somehow held on for a 1-1 draw against a below-strength England in their final group match to get the point they needed to claim a semi-final place. There's no doubt that the poor quality of the football in Group B aided their chances, however, and they were lucky to meet England when Stuart Pearce's side had nothing to play for.
I expected Italy to be around the [2.0] mark so it's fantastic to find them as big as [2.4] to win in 90 minutes. Germany are [3.3] and the draw [3.35], but I simply cannot make a case for either outcome on the basis of the evidence so far. Fore more cautious punters, Italy are available to qualify - that's in 90 minutes, extra-time or via penalties - at [1.61].