Down to four teams in NCAA basketball, there are only three games left in the season. The national final is set for April 6th, but first the two semifinals will be played on Saturday April 4th.
The first game will feature the University of Connecticut Huskies playing against the Michigan State Spartans and Connecticut comes in as a significant favorite at 10/19 while the odds for the upset are set at 33/20.
Connecticut, however, appears to be a heavier favorite than the odds suggest. While Michigan State has proved that they belong in the Final Four by defeating, convincingly, a very tough Louisville Cardinal team that is not an accomplishment that Connecticut cannot lay claim to. In February, Connecticut defeated Louisville by an even more convincing seventeen points and unlike Michigan State's, Connecticut's win was on Louisville's home court. When one looks at other common opponents, as one should, one learns that Michigan State has in their history an eighteen point loss to Purdue (February 17th), a team that Connecticut beat by twelve in the Sweet Sixteen.
While Michigan State has good players, they are outmatched in terms of height and athleticism. No one on Michigan State is playing as well as Connecticut's Stanley Robinson or freshman Kemba Walker, two physically strong players that have elevated their game play so high that they may both have futures in the NBA. Throw in a 7'3" shot blocking Hasheem Thabeet, who will certainly draw the attention of the professional teams when his college days are done, and it's very hard to see how Michigan State will match Connecticut in this game. Especially considering that there at least two players on Connecticut's bench, substitutes, in Walker and 6'9" Gavin Edwards that would likely start for Michigan State if they played there.
However, at 10/19 picking Connecticut does not provide the best return, but picking them to cover the four point spread set at 10/11 might be better as they should dominate Michigan State well enough for a solid victory.
In the other semifinal the biggest underdog of the Final Four is Villanova who have drawn North Carolina, the best team remaining of the four semifinalists. Although Villanova should lose, they are so athletic, so gutsy, so tested, and rated as such an underdog that it might be too tempting not to pick them just because they could surprise the Tar Heels, a team with many players who choked last year in the national semifinals with a twenty-two point collapse against Kansas. Currently the Wildcats are set as 61/20 underdogs, a tempting fractional because it seems a bit too high for a team that has posted such huge victories against tough teams recently.
Not to be ignored, there is some evidence that suggests that Villanova has a chance in this game. Both Villanova and North Carolina have one recent common opponent in the Duke Blue Devils. While Villanova destroyed Duke in the Sweet Sixteen by twenty-three points, a few weeks ago North Carolina, with home court advantage, edged Duke by only seven (prior to the Lawson injury as well).
It may sound a little odd to suggest picking a team that should lose, but really it isn't. You have to factor in the odds when making your picks and there is no reason to believe that Villanova can't beat North Carolina often enough to warrant picking them at a 61/20 fractional. At least you should pick them to cover the 7.5 point spread: they've earned that much respect with their play of late.
As expected, North Carolina is favored with an unattractive 10/37 fractional, meaning you would have to wager $37 just to profit ten. If you've watched the Villanova games, you've seen that they are not some weak team on an unlikely 'Cinderella run' that has gotten a few lucky bounces and they shouldn't be portrayed this way. They are legitimate national semifinalists and North Carolina is not a solid enough of a 'lock' to warrant the risk.
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