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UCLA Bruins look the value pick at 8/1 for the PAC 10

The PAC 10 will conclude what has to be described as a conference wide disappointing season.  No team in the PAC 10 is even considered to be a remote threat to the National Championship this season and the conference stands to see their normal powerhouse schools miss the big dance.

Here are the odds to win the PAC 10 tournament outright for all schools contesting the event with Sportsbook.com:

1.  California  +140   
2.  Washington  +250   
3.  Arizona St  +275   
4.  UCLA  +800   
5.  Arizona  +900   
6.  Oregon St  +4000   
7.  Stanford  +4000   
8.  Washington St  +7500   
9.  Oregon  +7500  

Here are the standings within the PAC 10 from the regular season (note that USC have no odds and will not be playing in the PAC 10 tournament because of a school imposed sanction stemming from the O.J. Mayo controversy):

1.  California     13-5
2.  Arizona St.    12-6
3.  Washington     11-7
4.  Arizona        10-8
5.  USC            8-10
6.  Oregon St.     8-10
7.  UCLA           8-10
8.  Oregon         7-11
9.  Stanford       7-11
10. Washington St. 6-12

With the top four seeds all having such terrible records this conference tournament looks wide open.  California are the top seed but at 13-5 is there anyone out there who really wants to take them at +140 besides California fans?  Usually when you go with a top seed at short odds it is because they have been dominant through the whole season against their conference opponents with at the most 3 losses on the year in conference play.  You do not have a heavy favorite in the PAC 10 this year so don't bet like there is one and do not back a team at short odds.

When you compare and contrast the odds vs the standings there are a couple of notable contradictions.  Washington is second when the odds are ranked but they finished 3rd in the regular season standings.  The best explanation for that is that Washington and Arizona State are candidates to play one another in the semifinals and the Huskies defeated Arizona State by 23 in their last outing February 6th.  Anyone who sees these two teams colliding is probably putting Washington through to the final based on that victory.

But the glaring oddity between the odds and the regular season standings has to do with UCLA, their 8-10 losing record in the PAC 10, and the implied assumption based on the above odds that they are the fourth favorite despite finishing 7th in the conference.

The UCLA Bruins have lost 3 in a row coming into the tournament but news that Reeves Nelson, UCLA's best inside player, will be back in the lineup has made many Bruins backers optimistic.  At +800 and in this conference where even the top seed has so many losses the Bruins' odds have to be judged to be valuable as the conditions appear to be right for an underdog champion.

The PAC-10 has been way to topsy-turvy this year to bet on a favorite and we're recommending the Bruins as the worthy underdog.

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