Tip off for this Sweet 16 match-up is on Thursday at 7:10pm ET.
The Butler Bulldogs appear to be outmatched as they prepare to face the Syracuse Orange on Thursday in the West Regional semifinal. Butler, out of the Horizon League are 30-4 on the year however they are also a school that has not played a strong team, besides maybe Siena, since way back in December. There is a lot of fluff in the Bulldogs' record as 18 of their wins came out of the Horizon League, a conference that does not have strong competition. Syracuse are also 30-4 but everyone knows that most of those wins are hard earned victories.
Here are the odds with Players Only for the Syracuse vs Butler matchup:
Butler to win, +245 (+6)
Syracuse to win, -290 (-6)
These are the tournament teams that Butler have faced this year including their first two wins in the tournament:
March 20th: beat Murray State, 54-52
March 18th: beat UTEP, 77-59
February 20th: beat Siena, 70-53
December 19th: beat Xavier, 69-68
December 12th: beat Ohio State, 74-66
December 8th: lost Georgetown, 65-72
November 26th: lost Minnesota, 73-82
The Ohio State team is probably the team that most closely resembles Syracuse in terms of calibre however there is something important to note. Evan Turner, the best player in college basketball this year, did not play in the game vs Butler back in December, a point those looking to back Butler need to acknowledge as there's no way that Butler wins by 8 if Turner had been playing.
Defeating Xavier is certainly a quality win as well but it was just a one point win and Syracuse have to be considered to be much better than the Musketeers this season. The conclusion that you have to draw is that there is nothing in Butler's season that would suggest they have any value priced at +245 to beat the 'cuse.
The true odds on Syracuse in this game might be more like -375 (4/15) as Jim Boeheim has his team firing away in the tournament. The Orange did struggle down the stretch before the tournament but in the first two rounds of the Madness so far, the 'cuse have posted two huge spreads, one of which was against a talented Gonzaga team (22 point margin of victory).
The clear pick is to take Syracuse to beat Butler in the straight up market. The spread of -6 also looks good to back for Syracuse to cover as well but the straight up line, even as short as -290, still has some value. The Orange should really highlight the difference between the Big East and Horizon League in this game and Jim Boeheim is the proven coach in these situations with a much more impressive resume than Brad Stevens although Stevens' day may be coming in the future.
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