The Atlanta Braves have been at the top of the National League East for a large part of the season.

As the Phillies struggled with their offense the Braves kept ticking along but at no point were they able to pull away from Philadelphia. Now as the Phillies have started to heat up (winners of their last five straight) the Braves have to look over their shoulder. Atlanta currently leads the East by one game, a record that is mainly due to their impressive 49-19 record at home. On the road things have not been going so well, Atlanta are eight games under 500, a statistic that will need to improve if they want to be there at the end of October.

Atlanta are currently 4-4 in the series against Marlins in games played in Florida so while they do have travel woes they have been able to maintain a .500 record against the Fish. On the mound for the Braves is a rookie pitcher who will be looking to go 4-0 after winning his last three starts. Mike Minor has had a good start to his major league career and has not given up more than three earned runs in any of his four starts so far. He has also struck out at least a batter an inning and even managed twelve strikeouts against the Cubs in Wrigley on August 22nd. This is Minor’s first start against Florida and while his road ERA is slightly higher than his home average there is no reason to believe that he won’t give the Braves a good chance to win again today.

Facing Minor is another first-year pitcher, Alex Sanabia. Sanabia is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA in ten games this season and he is certainly a pitcher who prefers to pitch at home. In three starts at home this season his ERA is 2.93 compared to 4.66 when starting away from Florida. This is Sanabia’s second outing against the Braves. In his first game, also at home, Sanabia only gave up one earned run but he did only last 4 1/3 innings. You’ll certainly expect him to go longer this time out and if he can emulate his early August performances then the Marlins will certainly have a chance. Sanabia has been inconsistent, which is to be expected of a rookie, but he certainly has the skill set to shut down the Braves today.

Simply put Atlanta have more to play for and Mike Minor is certainly a pitcher capable of stepping up to the task. The Braves are 4/5 for the win today while the Marlins are available at 10/11 at Bluesq. The total runs market is currently set at 8 ½ so it’s worth noting that three of the last five games between these two teams (which have all taken place in the last two weeks) have had eight or fewer runs.