Watch your bets here as the weights could go up on the day of the race should Notre Pere, who has 11st 12lb, be withdrawn. The Welsh National winner will only run if there is significant rain and, in his absence, all runners with have their weights raised 7lb from their original handicap mark.
That would leave Wichita Lineman, Blue Square's 8/1 joint favourite (along with Pomme Tiepy), lumbered with top weight of 11st 7lb, which would be far from ideal. Only one winner, Commanche Court, has carried more than 10st 12lb to victory in the last 10 years, and he was good enough to later finish second in a Gold Cup.
Ruby Walsh, the rider of Pomme Tiepy, one of three runners for Willie Mullins, along with Emma Jane and Arbor Supreme, will be one rider hoping that the weights do go up as his charge is set to carry 9st 12lb meaning he will be on a diet of fresh air over the weekend.
For the winner, though, I like the look of EMMA JANE, who is also set to carry 9st 12lb and will be ridden by one of the most promising young riders in Ireland, Paul Townend.
The second-season chaser has had a relatively light campaign compared to some of these and should be spot-on after winning the Leinster National at Naas last time, her first try at beyond 3m. That proved her stamina beyond doubt and she’s pretty versatile as regards the ground. Furthermore, apart from one first-fence fall, she jumps immaculately, so I strongly fancy her to emulate Ebony Jane – the last mare to win this race in 1993.
Of the rest, Rare Bid is interesting as he also appears to have been laid out for this race since winning at Navan in February. With 10st 5lb to carry, though, he could well end up carrying over 11st and, besides, has to give the selection 7lb. Tony Martin reports that Royal County Star “is just coming to himself”, but he too would have a burden of 11st 6lb.
However, HIMALAYAN TRAIL could be worth a saver at decent odds. Jimmy Mangan’s ten-year-old was laid out for the Grand National but got no further than the first. He came back from Aintree with a slight knock but is now in “good form” according to his trainer Jimmy Mangan. If he runs, it’s a tip in itself.
Recommended Bets:
Emma Jane 2pts each-way @ Ladbrokes
Himalayan Trail 1pt each-way @ Paddypower